The 4H is fully bullish. Volume Polarity surging, Bias Cloud green, Directional Wave expanding. On the surface this looks like a market with legs.
Zoom out and it gets complicated.
The Daily Bias Cloud is still red, threatening to flip but not there yet. The Directional Wave has entered the Bull Zone and the Acceleration Histogram is at a level I've only seen twice before on this chart, June 2006 and September 2007.
The June 2006 reading led to a quick dump and then a decent run before the eventual top. The September 2007 reading came almost exactly one month before the initial dump that became the 2008 Financial Crisis.
I'm not calling a crash. One data point doesn't make a thesis. But extreme acceleration at resistance is rarely the launching pad for a sustained move higher. Right now we're sitting directly under short-term (orange) resistance at $6,869 and mid-term (green) resistance that dates back to the breakout in June 2025.
To make things messier, the Weekly just flipped its Bias Cloud to Bearish.
To me this looks like a relief rally running out of steam. I'd expect a rejection off the $6,869 level down to the resistance turned support at $6,685.
Break and hold above $6,869 and I'm wrong.
Zoom out and it gets complicated.
The Daily Bias Cloud is still red, threatening to flip but not there yet. The Directional Wave has entered the Bull Zone and the Acceleration Histogram is at a level I've only seen twice before on this chart, June 2006 and September 2007.
The June 2006 reading led to a quick dump and then a decent run before the eventual top. The September 2007 reading came almost exactly one month before the initial dump that became the 2008 Financial Crisis.
I'm not calling a crash. One data point doesn't make a thesis. But extreme acceleration at resistance is rarely the launching pad for a sustained move higher. Right now we're sitting directly under short-term (orange) resistance at $6,869 and mid-term (green) resistance that dates back to the breakout in June 2025.
To make things messier, the Weekly just flipped its Bias Cloud to Bearish.
To me this looks like a relief rally running out of steam. I'd expect a rejection off the $6,869 level down to the resistance turned support at $6,685.
Break and hold above $6,869 and I'm wrong.
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関連の投稿
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これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。