The key catalyst is U.S. CPI on Tuesday. A downside surprise would likely reinforce the disinflation narrative, push front-end U.S. yields lower, and reopen the path for a broader USD softening. Conversely, a stronger print would trigger a hawkish repricing at the front end, tighten financial conditions, and support the dollar via wider yield differentials. By contrast, Europe’s near‑term impulse is more muted, leaving the euro relatively stable in the policy narrative while the USD remains the main swing factor.
Bull Thesis
Entry Zone: 1.1690 – 1.1695
Stop Loss: 1.1671
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.1718
TP2: 1.1748 – 1.1755
TP3: 1.1780 – 1.1800
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1.3 (TP1) to ~1:4+ (TP3)
Reason: Softer CPI (or any development that pressures U.S. yields lower) supports a USD fade, and EUR/USD typically expresses that through a breakout-and-hold above key dynamic resistance.
Bear Thesis
Entry Zone: 1.1690 – 1.1700
Stop Loss: 1.1712
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.1673
TP2: 1.1660 – 1.1655
TP3: 1.1638 – 1.1625
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1.2 (TP1) to ~1:3.5+ (TP3)
Reason: This becomes especially compelling in a macro scenario where CPI surprises hot (or U.S. data pushes yields higher), because the first reaction is usually a front-end yield pop
Bull Thesis
Entry Zone: 1.1690 – 1.1695
Stop Loss: 1.1671
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.1718
TP2: 1.1748 – 1.1755
TP3: 1.1780 – 1.1800
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1.3 (TP1) to ~1:4+ (TP3)
Reason: Softer CPI (or any development that pressures U.S. yields lower) supports a USD fade, and EUR/USD typically expresses that through a breakout-and-hold above key dynamic resistance.
Bear Thesis
Entry Zone: 1.1690 – 1.1700
Stop Loss: 1.1712
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.1673
TP2: 1.1660 – 1.1655
TP3: 1.1638 – 1.1625
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1.2 (TP1) to ~1:3.5+ (TP3)
Reason: This becomes especially compelling in a macro scenario where CPI surprises hot (or U.S. data pushes yields higher), because the first reaction is usually a front-end yield pop
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。