Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.15250, SL 1.15550, TP 1.14550
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.15250, SL 1.15550, TP 1.14550
More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。