EUR/USD is trading near 1.16850 on Monday, pressured by renewed demand for the US dollar. The American currency strengthened after the collapse of negotiations between the US and Iran and the start of a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The sharp rise in oil above $100 increased concerns about inflation in the United States and significantly weakened expectations of an early Fed rate cut. For the euro, this means stronger external pressure, as the market is once again favoring the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
The situation is becoming more difficult for the euro area because the energy shock is hitting the region harder than the US. In March, inflation accelerated to 2.5% from 1.9% a month earlier, while the composite business activity index fell to 50.7, the weakest reading in nine months. Demand declined for the first time in eight months, the services sector nearly stalled, and companies became more cautious in their assessment of the near-term outlook. This backdrop limits the recovery potential of the single currency.
ECB officials already admit that further decisions will depend on the scale and duration of energy disruptions. If oil and gas prices remain elevated for longer, the regulator may be forced to act more firmly, but for now the market is focused more on risks to economic growth than on possible support for the euro through interest rates. As long as the Middle East conflict and inflation risks remain in focus, pressure on EUR/USD is likely to persist.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16850, SL 1.17150, TP 1.15950
The situation is becoming more difficult for the euro area because the energy shock is hitting the region harder than the US. In March, inflation accelerated to 2.5% from 1.9% a month earlier, while the composite business activity index fell to 50.7, the weakest reading in nine months. Demand declined for the first time in eight months, the services sector nearly stalled, and companies became more cautious in their assessment of the near-term outlook. This backdrop limits the recovery potential of the single currency.
ECB officials already admit that further decisions will depend on the scale and duration of energy disruptions. If oil and gas prices remain elevated for longer, the regulator may be forced to act more firmly, but for now the market is focused more on risks to economic growth than on possible support for the euro through interest rates. As long as the Middle East conflict and inflation risks remain in focus, pressure on EUR/USD is likely to persist.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16850, SL 1.17150, TP 1.15950
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More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。