The euro is holding near multi-week highs on expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as this week and on the stabilization of government bond yields around the 10-year area. As of Monday morning, the pair trades near 1.16400–1.16500, reflecting a weaker dollar after a run of soft US data and sustained interest in risk assets. Comments about a possible “cautious” policy easing by the Federal Reserve support demand for the euro, while short-term profit-taking merely cools the momentum.
On the European side, the tone is set by improving business activity in the services sector and expectations that the ECB will keep the rate unchanged, focusing on growth and inflation risks. Lower hedging costs for dollar assets for euro-area investors also provide a tailwind for the euro and reduce the premium for dollar liquidity. As a result, the fundamental balance over the near horizon looks moderately favorable for EUR/USD.
The trading idea is based on a scenario of a mild step by the Fed and neutral signals from the ECB, which would shift rate expectations in favor of the euro. A buy from 1.16450 with a stop at 1.16250 accounts for possible swings around US releases, while the 1.17050 target assumes the continuation of an upward correction if the current news backdrop holds. Strategy risks include a sudden dollar rebound on strong US data or firm comments from individual Fed officials.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16450, SL 1.16250, TP 1.17050
On the European side, the tone is set by improving business activity in the services sector and expectations that the ECB will keep the rate unchanged, focusing on growth and inflation risks. Lower hedging costs for dollar assets for euro-area investors also provide a tailwind for the euro and reduce the premium for dollar liquidity. As a result, the fundamental balance over the near horizon looks moderately favorable for EUR/USD.
The trading idea is based on a scenario of a mild step by the Fed and neutral signals from the ECB, which would shift rate expectations in favor of the euro. A buy from 1.16450 with a stop at 1.16250 accounts for possible swings around US releases, while the 1.17050 target assumes the continuation of an upward correction if the current news backdrop holds. Strategy risks include a sudden dollar rebound on strong US data or firm comments from individual Fed officials.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16450, SL 1.16250, TP 1.17050
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More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。