始めましょう
Crude Palm Oil Futures

16/12/25 Bears Need Strong Follow-through Selling

161
スナップショット
  1. Monday’s candlestick (Dec. 15) was a doji bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
  2. In our previous report, we stated that traders would watch to see whether the bears could create a follow-through bear bar to test near the November low, or if the market would trade higher towards the 20-day EMA instead.
  3. The market traded higher, but the follow-through buying was limited, closing near the day's low.
  4. The bulls hope the selloff (Nov 26) will form a major higher low.
  5. The bulls hope to get a reversal from a large wedge pattern (Jan 17, May 8, and Nov 26).
  6. They view the current pullback as a retest of the November 26 low and want it to form a higher low major trend reversal.
  7. They must produce strong follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to show they are clearly in control.
  8. The bears want the 20-day EMA to act as a resistance level, followed by a retest of the November low. The move is underway.
  9. They hope for a strong third leg to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being on November 13 and November 26.
  10. At the least, they want a retest of the November 26 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
  11. Fundamentals:
  12. • Production: Production indicated +5 to 10% in Pen Malaysia for the first 10 days.
  13. • Refineries: Buying interest is there at these low prices. Not paying premiums vs spot futures. Reports of high stock levels.
  14. • Exports: ITS first 15 days of Dec: down -15.89%
  15. Traders will see the strength of the retest of the November 26 low. Will it be strong, breaking below the Nov 26 low? Or will it form a higher low? So far, the retest of the low has formed a higher low (Dec 10) and has overlapping candlesticks, indicating that the bears are not decisively strong.
  16. Today (Tuesday, Dec. 16), traders will watch to see whether the bears can create a follow-through bear bar breaking below the November low.
  17. Or will the market stall around the November low area?

Andrew
Tech_Trader88
fcpoFCPO1!palmoilTrend Analysis

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fcpoFCPO1!palmoilTrend Analysis
Tech_Trader88

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これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。