WEEKLY TRADE PLAN — GBPUSD
🏷️ Status
CONDITIONAL TRADE PLAN — TWO SAME-DIRECTION EXECUTION PATHS
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary: Deeper H4 pullback buy
Alternate: Breakout-retest buy if no pullback occurs
Only one GBPUSD entry may be active.
Fundamental Alignment
Supportive but event-sensitive — conviction modestly boosted.
The BoE’s current stance is marginally more GBP-supportive than the Fed’s, but next week’s UK jobs and inflation releases can quickly change that balance. Risk remains reduced until the data is absorbed.
Scenario A — PRIMARY PULLBACK BUY
🎯 Trade Idea
BUY
The broader H4 structure remains bullish, but current price around 1.3455 is neither deep enough nor clean enough to chase.
📘 Trade Type
Trend Continuation Pullback
📍 Entry Plan
Order Type: Conditional Buy
Preferred Entry: 1.3400, after activation.
Main POI Zone: 1.3375–1.3425
[H4 breakout base and previous resistance converted into support]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.3390–1.3415
[Deeper-value portion preserving structural RR]
POI Logic: Bullish H4 swing structure + breakout origin + role-flip support + structural invalidation beneath the base + open path back toward the weekly high.
Set-and-Forget Eligible: NO
Friday already partially tested the higher edge of the zone, and major UK data is approaching. The deeper base must prove it is still defended.
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 1.3350
[Below the meaningful H4 breakout base; bullish continuation fails beneath here]
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.3495
[First H4 recovery resistance]
TP2: 1.3560
[Current weekly high and principal continuation objective]
TP3: 1.3650
[Higher weekly range objective only after breakout acceptance]
📊 Risk / Reward
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.2
Risk: 0.50%
Plan Quality: A+ / 92
✅ Activation
Trade is not active.
Price must pull back into 1.3375–1.3425.
A completed H4 candle must defend the zone and close back above 1.3420.
If that confirmation closes inside or immediately beside the execution band, a market buy is permitted while RR remains at least 1:3.
If the confirmation closes materially higher, place Buy Limit 1.3400 on the first controlled retest.
⚠️ Cancel Trade If
H4 closes below 1.3350.
Price accepts below 1.3375 rather than reclaiming.
Price reaches 1.3495 before entry.
Monday gaps through the POI.
UK or U.S. data consumes the zone with bearish acceptance.
The order remains unfilled at Friday New York close.
🛡️ Trade Management
TP1 — 1.3495:
Reduce approximately 25% because this is the first shelf where the recovery may stall. If price reaches it and then closes H4 back below 1.3420, protect the remainder because the defended pullback has failed to hold.
TP2 — 1.3560:
This is the principal objective and the high that stopped last week’s expansion. Close most of the position here. Holding beyond it is justified only if H4 breaks and accepts above the high rather than merely wicking through it.
TP3 — 1.3650:
Keep only a small runner after an H4 close above 1.3560 and a successful retest. A sharp rejection from the weekly high means the trade is complete at TP2.
🔁 Scenario B — BREAKOUT BUY ALTERNATE
Not active now.
This is used only if GBPUSD moves higher without providing the primary pullback.
Trade Type: Breakout-Retest Expansion
Main POI Zone: 1.3535–1.3565
[Retest area after confirmed acceptance above the current weekly high]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.3545–1.3555
Entry: Conditional buy after H4 breakout acceptance.
Preferred Entry: 1.3550
Activation:
H4 closes above 1.3560.
Price retests 1.3535–1.3565.
A completed H4 candle holds the retest above the broken high.
Enter near 1.3550 only while the breakout remains accepted.
SL: 1.3505
TP1: 1.3615
TP2: 1.3690
TP3: 1.3780
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.1
Cancel if:
Breakout immediately fails below 1.3505.
Price reaches 1.3615 before offering the retest.
The move is only a news wick without H4 acceptance.
The primary pullback trade is already active.
Management if activated
At 1.3615, remove roughly 25% because this is the first weekly reaction shelf above the breakout. At 1.3690, close most because price enters the established upper weekly range. Hold toward 1.3780 only if H4 remains accepted above 1.3690.
📅 Validity / Expiry
Valid through Friday, July 24 New York close, unless cancelled earlier.
No fresh activation late Friday.
An unfilled order expires Friday.
A filled trade continues under its SL and management; Friday expiry does not automatically close it.
No carryover or re-entry next week without a new X or PLAN AUDIT.
📝 Trader Note
GBPUSD tapped the old buy area on Friday, but the proper confirmation-and-retest sequence never completed before the close. For the new week, I am not buying 1.3455. I want a controlled return into 1.3390–1.3415 and an H4 defence back above 1.3420. If that close remains near the band, I can buy at market; if it closes higher, I will leave 1.3400 for the first retest. If price breaks 1.3560 before pulling back, the primary entry is missed and I switch attention only to the confirmed breakout-retest plan. An H4 close below 1.3350 kills the bullish thesis completely.
🔍 Scenario Audit
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary pullback buy: Valid.
Same-direction breakout alternate: Valid only after H4 acceptance and retest.
Tactical sell: Watch Only — H4 bullish structure has not failed.
HTF sell around 1.3630–1.3700: Watch Only — requires price to reach the zone, H4 failure and H1 reversal confirmation.
🏷️ Status
CONDITIONAL TRADE PLAN — TWO SAME-DIRECTION EXECUTION PATHS
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary: Deeper H4 pullback buy
Alternate: Breakout-retest buy if no pullback occurs
Only one GBPUSD entry may be active.
Fundamental Alignment
Supportive but event-sensitive — conviction modestly boosted.
The BoE’s current stance is marginally more GBP-supportive than the Fed’s, but next week’s UK jobs and inflation releases can quickly change that balance. Risk remains reduced until the data is absorbed.
Scenario A — PRIMARY PULLBACK BUY
🎯 Trade Idea
BUY
The broader H4 structure remains bullish, but current price around 1.3455 is neither deep enough nor clean enough to chase.
📘 Trade Type
Trend Continuation Pullback
📍 Entry Plan
Order Type: Conditional Buy
Preferred Entry: 1.3400, after activation.
Main POI Zone: 1.3375–1.3425
[H4 breakout base and previous resistance converted into support]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.3390–1.3415
[Deeper-value portion preserving structural RR]
POI Logic: Bullish H4 swing structure + breakout origin + role-flip support + structural invalidation beneath the base + open path back toward the weekly high.
Set-and-Forget Eligible: NO
Friday already partially tested the higher edge of the zone, and major UK data is approaching. The deeper base must prove it is still defended.
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 1.3350
[Below the meaningful H4 breakout base; bullish continuation fails beneath here]
🎯 Targets
TP1: 1.3495
[First H4 recovery resistance]
TP2: 1.3560
[Current weekly high and principal continuation objective]
TP3: 1.3650
[Higher weekly range objective only after breakout acceptance]
📊 Risk / Reward
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.2
Risk: 0.50%
Plan Quality: A+ / 92
✅ Activation
Trade is not active.
Price must pull back into 1.3375–1.3425.
A completed H4 candle must defend the zone and close back above 1.3420.
If that confirmation closes inside or immediately beside the execution band, a market buy is permitted while RR remains at least 1:3.
If the confirmation closes materially higher, place Buy Limit 1.3400 on the first controlled retest.
⚠️ Cancel Trade If
H4 closes below 1.3350.
Price accepts below 1.3375 rather than reclaiming.
Price reaches 1.3495 before entry.
Monday gaps through the POI.
UK or U.S. data consumes the zone with bearish acceptance.
The order remains unfilled at Friday New York close.
🛡️ Trade Management
TP1 — 1.3495:
Reduce approximately 25% because this is the first shelf where the recovery may stall. If price reaches it and then closes H4 back below 1.3420, protect the remainder because the defended pullback has failed to hold.
TP2 — 1.3560:
This is the principal objective and the high that stopped last week’s expansion. Close most of the position here. Holding beyond it is justified only if H4 breaks and accepts above the high rather than merely wicking through it.
TP3 — 1.3650:
Keep only a small runner after an H4 close above 1.3560 and a successful retest. A sharp rejection from the weekly high means the trade is complete at TP2.
🔁 Scenario B — BREAKOUT BUY ALTERNATE
Not active now.
This is used only if GBPUSD moves higher without providing the primary pullback.
Trade Type: Breakout-Retest Expansion
Main POI Zone: 1.3535–1.3565
[Retest area after confirmed acceptance above the current weekly high]
Preferred Execution Band: 1.3545–1.3555
Entry: Conditional buy after H4 breakout acceptance.
Preferred Entry: 1.3550
Activation:
H4 closes above 1.3560.
Price retests 1.3535–1.3565.
A completed H4 candle holds the retest above the broken high.
Enter near 1.3550 only while the breakout remains accepted.
SL: 1.3505
TP1: 1.3615
TP2: 1.3690
TP3: 1.3780
RR to TP2: approximately 1:3.1
Cancel if:
Breakout immediately fails below 1.3505.
Price reaches 1.3615 before offering the retest.
The move is only a news wick without H4 acceptance.
The primary pullback trade is already active.
Management if activated
At 1.3615, remove roughly 25% because this is the first weekly reaction shelf above the breakout. At 1.3690, close most because price enters the established upper weekly range. Hold toward 1.3780 only if H4 remains accepted above 1.3690.
📅 Validity / Expiry
Valid through Friday, July 24 New York close, unless cancelled earlier.
No fresh activation late Friday.
An unfilled order expires Friday.
A filled trade continues under its SL and management; Friday expiry does not automatically close it.
No carryover or re-entry next week without a new X or PLAN AUDIT.
📝 Trader Note
GBPUSD tapped the old buy area on Friday, but the proper confirmation-and-retest sequence never completed before the close. For the new week, I am not buying 1.3455. I want a controlled return into 1.3390–1.3415 and an H4 defence back above 1.3420. If that close remains near the band, I can buy at market; if it closes higher, I will leave 1.3400 for the first retest. If price breaks 1.3560 before pulling back, the primary entry is missed and I switch attention only to the confirmed breakout-retest plan. An H4 close below 1.3350 kills the bullish thesis completely.
🔍 Scenario Audit
Executable elite plans: 2
Primary pullback buy: Valid.
Same-direction breakout alternate: Valid only after H4 acceptance and retest.
Tactical sell: Watch Only — H4 bullish structure has not failed.
HTF sell around 1.3630–1.3700: Watch Only — requires price to reach the zone, H4 failure and H1 reversal confirmation.
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。