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Fundamental Market Analysis for February 12, 2026 GBPUSD

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Events to watch today:

12.02 09:00 EET. GBP - Gross Domestic Product

12.02 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.36300–1.36400 on Thursday, while demand for the pound remains restrained after a stream of political and budget headlines from the UK. Investors prefer to stay cautious: the market remains highly sensitive to any signals about growth prospects and the resilience of public finances.

The Bank of England remains cautious as well. The regulator kept rates unchanged, while some committee members supported a cut, and growth forecasts were revised lower. This backdrop strengthens expectations that borrowing conditions may ease later this year, especially if domestic demand and the labor market cool further. Another focus today is fresh activity data, which can set the tone for sterling.

The U.S. dollar, by contrast, is supported by strong U.S. employment data and rising Treasury yields. The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation report, which can reinforce or weaken confidence that rates will stay high. If firm U.S. rate expectations persist, the pound may remain under pressure and the pair could drift lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.36350, SL 1.36650, TP 1.35450

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