2025 has clearly been the year of gold miners.
•
GOLD : ~+60% (USD)
•
GDX (Gold miners): ~+140% (USD)
That’s a massive spread between the metal and the miners.
Historically, spreads like this don’t persist.
The chart shows the Gold / Gold Miners ratio sitting at extreme levels.
In previous cycles, similar divergences have led to mean reversion, not continuation.
A move back toward the ~60 level looks like the minimum normalization scenario.
Macro context also matters.
The Gold / Miners ratio typically rises during periods of market stress, equity corrections, and rising volatility.
If we see renewed fear in markets, this ratio tends to spike — a headwind for miners relative to gold.
There’s also a risk that looks underpriced.
If oil prices rise, miners’ margins get compressed.
Energy is a key input cost, and current valuations do not reflect sustained higher oil prices.
Gold miners had an exceptional run.
But price leads fundamentals… until it doesn’t.
From here, probabilities favor mean reversion, not further multiple expansion.
Let the chart do the talking.
•
GOLD : ~+60% (USD)•
GDX (Gold miners): ~+140% (USD)That’s a massive spread between the metal and the miners.
Historically, spreads like this don’t persist.
The chart shows the Gold / Gold Miners ratio sitting at extreme levels.
In previous cycles, similar divergences have led to mean reversion, not continuation.
A move back toward the ~60 level looks like the minimum normalization scenario.
Macro context also matters.
The Gold / Miners ratio typically rises during periods of market stress, equity corrections, and rising volatility.
If we see renewed fear in markets, this ratio tends to spike — a headwind for miners relative to gold.
There’s also a risk that looks underpriced.
If oil prices rise, miners’ margins get compressed.
Energy is a key input cost, and current valuations do not reflect sustained higher oil prices.
Gold miners had an exceptional run.
But price leads fundamentals… until it doesn’t.
From here, probabilities favor mean reversion, not further multiple expansion.
Let the chart do the talking.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。