From an Elliott Wave perspective, there are currently three valid scenarios for Chainlink’s price action. Two of them are bullish across the short-, mid-, and long-term timeframes, while one scenario allows for a deeper correction in the short- to mid-term before the broader uptrend resumes.
The favoured scenario suggests we are in the early stages of a Wave 3 impulse, following a clean Wave 2 retracement that reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level — a textbook technical setup. This interpretation is supported not only by the internal wave structure but also by similarities to other crypto assets showing impulsive characteristics. Additionally, there is notable liquidity sitting above the current price, which could act as a magnet for a Wave 3 extension. Accumulation zones and bullish order blocks are also forming on correlated assets like Solana, and Cardano is showing a near-identical wave structure — a setup that has proven reliable in previous cycles.
The shift in funding rates from negative to positive supports this bullish thesis, indicating growing confidence among long-positioned traders. However, it’s worth noting that open interest has not yet increased in parallel, suggesting a lack of conviction or participation from larger players at this stage — a divergence that deserves close monitoring.
The liquidity heatmap shows clusters of stop liquidity above the current price — consistent with a bullish breakout — but also highlights resting liquidity below. In this context, it is crucial that the current local low holds. Ideally, price should break above both the Wave B and Wave 1 highs to confirm upward momentum and invalidate the bearish alternative.
In the bearish scenario, the structure would still be considered corrective, targeting a retest of the $12 region before any sustainable bullish continuation. This would represent a deeper Wave 2 or Wave B retracement, shaking out weaker hands before the next leg up.
From a risk/reward perspective, current levels still offer a compelling long opportunity — but invalidation below the recent low would open the door to the $12 area. Until then, the impulsive structure remains intact and favoured.
The favoured scenario suggests we are in the early stages of a Wave 3 impulse, following a clean Wave 2 retracement that reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level — a textbook technical setup. This interpretation is supported not only by the internal wave structure but also by similarities to other crypto assets showing impulsive characteristics. Additionally, there is notable liquidity sitting above the current price, which could act as a magnet for a Wave 3 extension. Accumulation zones and bullish order blocks are also forming on correlated assets like Solana, and Cardano is showing a near-identical wave structure — a setup that has proven reliable in previous cycles.
The shift in funding rates from negative to positive supports this bullish thesis, indicating growing confidence among long-positioned traders. However, it’s worth noting that open interest has not yet increased in parallel, suggesting a lack of conviction or participation from larger players at this stage — a divergence that deserves close monitoring.
The liquidity heatmap shows clusters of stop liquidity above the current price — consistent with a bullish breakout — but also highlights resting liquidity below. In this context, it is crucial that the current local low holds. Ideally, price should break above both the Wave B and Wave 1 highs to confirm upward momentum and invalidate the bearish alternative.
In the bearish scenario, the structure would still be considered corrective, targeting a retest of the $12 region before any sustainable bullish continuation. This would represent a deeper Wave 2 or Wave B retracement, shaking out weaker hands before the next leg up.
From a risk/reward perspective, current levels still offer a compelling long opportunity — but invalidation below the recent low would open the door to the $12 area. Until then, the impulsive structure remains intact and favoured.
ノート
NOTE TO ALL OF MY ANALYSES:You might be wondering why prices are expected to rise — especially considering that Wave 3 is typically the most dynamic phase in an impulsive structure. One of the main reasons lies in macroeconomic conditions: for a long time, capital inflow into crypto has been limited due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining high interest rates. However, this could change at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 93.6% probability of a rate cut being priced in. This expectation could lead to a classic "sell-the-news" event, as markets front-run the decision. That front-running could provide fuel for Wave 3 — especially from retail participants.
Why retail?
Because institutional players have already entered. We’ve seen them form significant order blocks near the end of Wave 2, which indicates professional accumulation during peak uncertainty. This structural evidence supports the idea that the smart money is already positioned — leaving retail to push the next leg.
Have a great week & stay consistent.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。