Monday and Tuesday kept Gold trapped in a pretty tight range. Then Wednesday finally gave us some expansion — price broke higher, pushed into a large Daily bearish FVG, and ultimately got rejected right back into the range.
Now we're heading into the first day of the new month/quarter, and I'm not interested in forcing a direction in the middle of this chop.
We also got stronger-than-expected ADP today, but I'm not going to assume that automatically means Friday's NFP will be hot. The reaction in price is still what matters.
🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO
I'm watching 4171.
If price breaks below that level and accepts underneath it, I want to see whether sellers can hold the breakdown instead of immediately reclaiming the range.
If we get that confirmation, the next major draw for me is the previous Daily Low around 4145.
If 4145 gives way with real displacement, then we could potentially see even lower levels.
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
On the other side, I'm watching 4200.
If Gold can break above 4200, hold above it, and give us a clean retest, that could open the door for another push higher.
First area I'm watching is the Daily High around 4218, followed by the 4250–4256 area.
⚠️ THE BIGGEST THING I'M WATCHING
Wednesday already showed us that a breakout can fail and rotate straight back into the range.
So I'm not interested in simply chasing the first candle through 4171 or 4200.
I want to see acceptance.
Break → Hold → Retest → Continuation.
If we break and immediately reclaim, that could be a completely different story.
Month-end/quarter-end flows can also create some weird price action, so I'm giving the market room to show its hand.
No need to predict the move.
4171 below me.
4200 above me.
Let's see which side Gold wants to prove. 🎯
#Gold #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #GoldFutures #TradingView #MGC #MarketStructure #PriceAction #OrderFlow #DayTrading #Trading
Now we're heading into the first day of the new month/quarter, and I'm not interested in forcing a direction in the middle of this chop.
We also got stronger-than-expected ADP today, but I'm not going to assume that automatically means Friday's NFP will be hot. The reaction in price is still what matters.
🔴 BEARISH SCENARIO
I'm watching 4171.
If price breaks below that level and accepts underneath it, I want to see whether sellers can hold the breakdown instead of immediately reclaiming the range.
If we get that confirmation, the next major draw for me is the previous Daily Low around 4145.
If 4145 gives way with real displacement, then we could potentially see even lower levels.
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
On the other side, I'm watching 4200.
If Gold can break above 4200, hold above it, and give us a clean retest, that could open the door for another push higher.
First area I'm watching is the Daily High around 4218, followed by the 4250–4256 area.
⚠️ THE BIGGEST THING I'M WATCHING
Wednesday already showed us that a breakout can fail and rotate straight back into the range.
So I'm not interested in simply chasing the first candle through 4171 or 4200.
I want to see acceptance.
Break → Hold → Retest → Continuation.
If we break and immediately reclaim, that could be a completely different story.
Month-end/quarter-end flows can also create some weird price action, so I'm giving the market room to show its hand.
No need to predict the move.
4171 below me.
4200 above me.
Let's see which side Gold wants to prove. 🎯
#Gold #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #GoldFutures #TradingView #MGC #MarketStructure #PriceAction #OrderFlow #DayTrading #Trading
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