🔶 SPX – HVL Reclaim & GEX Shift 🔶
SPX briefly traded below the High Volatility Level (HVL) yesterday, entering a 🔴 negative GEX regime, which increased downside sensitivity and intraday volatility. However, that breakdown failed to follow through.
Price has since reclaimed the HVL, and based on the 01/16 GEX profile, SPX is now back in 🟢 positive GEX territory, signaling a structural shift away from downside acceleration and back toward dealer-supported price behavior.
On the daily chart, this reclaim occurred directly off the rising trendline, which has defined the broader uptrend. The successful defense of this trend support suggests that the move below HVL was a temporary liquidity sweep rather than a regime change.
With HVL reclaimed and GEX flipping positive again, 🟢 upside flows regain control, and price becomes more responsive to call-side positioning rather than put hedging pressure.
🔶 Options Structure – Upside Reference 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the next major upside reference is the 7000 level, which represents:
🔶 Key Structure to Monitor 🔶
As long as SPX holds above HVL and the rising trendline, downside volatility should remain contained, and 🟢 rotation toward 7000 remains the higher-probability path. Failure to hold HVL would be the clearest signal that 🔴 negative GEX dynamics are reasserting.
SPX briefly traded below the High Volatility Level (HVL) yesterday, entering a 🔴 negative GEX regime, which increased downside sensitivity and intraday volatility. However, that breakdown failed to follow through.
Price has since reclaimed the HVL, and based on the 01/16 GEX profile, SPX is now back in 🟢 positive GEX territory, signaling a structural shift away from downside acceleration and back toward dealer-supported price behavior.
On the daily chart, this reclaim occurred directly off the rising trendline, which has defined the broader uptrend. The successful defense of this trend support suggests that the move below HVL was a temporary liquidity sweep rather than a regime change.
With HVL reclaimed and GEX flipping positive again, 🟢 upside flows regain control, and price becomes more responsive to call-side positioning rather than put hedging pressure.
🔶 Options Structure – Upside Reference 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the next major upside reference is the 7000 level, which represents:
- a key call resistance zone
- the dominant upside magnet in the current positive GEX environment
- a natural extension target following the trendline bounce
🔶 Key Structure to Monitor 🔶
- HVL – reclaimed, now acting as regime pivot 🟢
- Rising trendline – trend integrity confirmed 🟢
- Positive GEX (01/16) – supportive dealer positioning 🟢
- 7000 – primary upside target / call resistance 🟢
As long as SPX holds above HVL and the rising trendline, downside volatility should remain contained, and 🟢 rotation toward 7000 remains the higher-probability path. Failure to hold HVL would be the clearest signal that 🔴 negative GEX dynamics are reasserting.
トレード稼働中
🔶 Macro reality checkThis move is a very good reminder that it ultimately does not matter how the market is positioned — a single unexpected macro headline can completely disrupt the entire ecosystem and its prior structure.
This is exactly what the HVL level is for:
to clearly show you when this regime shift happens, so you can immediately hedge to the downside instead of reacting too late. 🔴
🔶 Structure update
Updating last week’s post, this also means that direction has been chosen — we have broken down from the ascending triangle. 🔴
What stands out clearly on the 12-hour chart is the 6700 confluence, which forms a strong potential support zone:
- bottom of the GEX squeeze zone
- 200 EMA (12h)
- Put wall
- lower boundary of a potential parallel upside channel
🔶 Risk management & hedging
Regardless of what happens next, the key point is that we are well below HVL, and we have once again seen a strong, decisive break through HVL. 🔴
Because of this, it makes sense to hedge to the downside in order to:
- balance a heavily positive-delta portfolio
- reduce downside risk and drawdowns
For naked short puts, it is worth closing at a loss and rolling down and further out in time, taking advantage of rising IV to collect additional credit.
🔶 Key takeaway
GEX is clearly signaling the need for downside hedging. 🔴
This is the moment to take defensive action — not to sit and watch your portfolio melt.
This is exactly what GEX is for:
to show you when it’s time to act.
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これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
Boost up your charts with Options PRO!
REAL Options metrics for over 250+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ GEX ✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day FREE TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
REAL Options metrics for over 250+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ GEX ✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day FREE TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
関連の投稿
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。