Here we can see that S&P 500 formed a 54 days rising wedge topping formation. This pattern signals an overall exhaustion in the market, meaning the price keeps climbing up, but each next push up is weaker.
It is very important that the volume after each push up is declining too signaling an exhaustion of the buyers. Also here we can see an interesting observation which doesn't always exist in rising wedges - the volume during down red days is higher than during green days which signals distribution.
This was a pure TA part. Now I want to share my macro thoughts very briefly why this rising wedge does not exist in a vacuum.
My main idea is that gold is simply pricking the stock market bubble now which I believe we are in. Money simply goes into gold and silver and stock simply go down at first in gold terms and later in dollar terms. This does not always happen but moves in precious metals now are simply historic and can not be ignored (magnitude of 2000s and 1970s pumps).
Also VIX has hit the lowest reading in 2 years which signals complacency (now it is up a lot).
Also corporate credit spreads are the lowest since 2008 meaning investors demand very little premium for holding risky corporate bonds over government ones.
Back to TA. There were a lot of tech stocks going down for a while already which spy simply does not capture (nasdaq qqq did capture it lil bit which is why it lagged behind s&p 500 past month).
We clearly saw a rotation from tech heavy nasdaq to IWM russel 2000 index since NOV 24 2025. Also we saw a rotation from nasdaq to european STOXX index which outperformed past month too. Usually that's not a good sign and leads to corrections.
All of this together and not just a pure TA makes my idea a little bit stronger when adding all the factors together. We will see how it plays out. And yes Stocks PE ratio is very high too now.
Don't forget the geopolitical uncertainty which high growth stuff hates (bitcoin including plus tech stocks). Defense stocks did well and gold hedges. I heard people say the Sell America trade where there's a higher risk premium to hold american stocks investors might demand with the whole trade wars which every one is sick of and Greenland takeover.
Stay safe!
It is very important that the volume after each push up is declining too signaling an exhaustion of the buyers. Also here we can see an interesting observation which doesn't always exist in rising wedges - the volume during down red days is higher than during green days which signals distribution.
This was a pure TA part. Now I want to share my macro thoughts very briefly why this rising wedge does not exist in a vacuum.
My main idea is that gold is simply pricking the stock market bubble now which I believe we are in. Money simply goes into gold and silver and stock simply go down at first in gold terms and later in dollar terms. This does not always happen but moves in precious metals now are simply historic and can not be ignored (magnitude of 2000s and 1970s pumps).
Also VIX has hit the lowest reading in 2 years which signals complacency (now it is up a lot).
Also corporate credit spreads are the lowest since 2008 meaning investors demand very little premium for holding risky corporate bonds over government ones.
Back to TA. There were a lot of tech stocks going down for a while already which spy simply does not capture (nasdaq qqq did capture it lil bit which is why it lagged behind s&p 500 past month).
We clearly saw a rotation from tech heavy nasdaq to IWM russel 2000 index since NOV 24 2025. Also we saw a rotation from nasdaq to european STOXX index which outperformed past month too. Usually that's not a good sign and leads to corrections.
All of this together and not just a pure TA makes my idea a little bit stronger when adding all the factors together. We will see how it plays out. And yes Stocks PE ratio is very high too now.
Don't forget the geopolitical uncertainty which high growth stuff hates (bitcoin including plus tech stocks). Defense stocks did well and gold hedges. I heard people say the Sell America trade where there's a higher risk premium to hold american stocks investors might demand with the whole trade wars which every one is sick of and Greenland takeover.
Stay safe!
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