Tuesday morning is the sequencing binary of the week. June CPI drops at 08:30 ET the same second as JPM, Goldman, Wells and Citi report before the open; PPI drops at 08:30 ET Wednesday alongside Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML.
Then the FOMC blackout begins Saturday July 18. Under Warsh the base case is silence between meetings, so this week is the last open Fed window before the July 28-29 decision. The July 8 minutes deleted the easing-bias language, staffed five outside-led task forces on the conduct of policy, and named Hormuz as a driver of inflation persistence.
Behind the tape, the Hormuz situation re-escalated over the weekend: the IRGC struck a container ship and declared the Strait closed while the US struck ~140 targets and calls it open, two claims at once with transit volume the only referee, and Qatar has now suspended all maritime activity. Crude opened the week bid (Brent ~$79.16, up 4.1%, WTI ~$74.38), so energy is a two-front trade: the Northwest Europe diesel crack at an all-time record $60.77 over Brent on Russia's enacted export ban (July 8 through 31), and the barrel back in play on the closure and the Qatar suspension.
The highest-leverage catalyst is whether Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Kuwait follow Qatar; if they do, the closure turns real and Brent takes out $85. The OFAC GL-X wind-down cliff lands Friday July 17 with ~63M bbl of Iranian crude stranded on the water and no buyers, the bearish crude tail the products melt-up has been masking.
Signals scorecard sits low-conviction on the count (BULL 5 / BEAR 4) with three factors past kill lines: P/E 27.2x over 25, CPI 4.2% over 4.0, junk spreads 2.70 under the 3.0 contrarian line (credit pricing zero risk premium). Own cheap optionality over the directional bet.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Then the FOMC blackout begins Saturday July 18. Under Warsh the base case is silence between meetings, so this week is the last open Fed window before the July 28-29 decision. The July 8 minutes deleted the easing-bias language, staffed five outside-led task forces on the conduct of policy, and named Hormuz as a driver of inflation persistence.
Behind the tape, the Hormuz situation re-escalated over the weekend: the IRGC struck a container ship and declared the Strait closed while the US struck ~140 targets and calls it open, two claims at once with transit volume the only referee, and Qatar has now suspended all maritime activity. Crude opened the week bid (Brent ~$79.16, up 4.1%, WTI ~$74.38), so energy is a two-front trade: the Northwest Europe diesel crack at an all-time record $60.77 over Brent on Russia's enacted export ban (July 8 through 31), and the barrel back in play on the closure and the Qatar suspension.
The highest-leverage catalyst is whether Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Kuwait follow Qatar; if they do, the closure turns real and Brent takes out $85. The OFAC GL-X wind-down cliff lands Friday July 17 with ~63M bbl of Iranian crude stranded on the water and no buyers, the bearish crude tail the products melt-up has been masking.
Signals scorecard sits low-conviction on the count (BULL 5 / BEAR 4) with three factors past kill lines: P/E 27.2x over 25, CPI 4.2% over 4.0, junk spreads 2.70 under the 3.0 contrarian line (credit pricing zero risk premium). Own cheap optionality over the directional bet.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Public, timestamped track record. Free month of the desk: ivanlabrie.netlify.app
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Public, timestamped track record. Free month of the desk: ivanlabrie.netlify.app
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。