SPY closes August pinned at 761.6, right on the 762.34 shelf that has capped every attempt lower since the late-August rotation. Structure is still a range: 772.10 top, 764.67 as the internal pivot, and a demand block at 759.35–759.48 that hasn't been tested cleanly.
The path I'm watching on the 15m: a sweep below 759.35 to take out the stops resting under the range low, followed by a reclaim of 762.34 and a rotation toward the 770 area. Failure to reclaim within a few candles invalidates it.
Weekly CRT
The higher timeframe lines up with this. Last week is the range candle — roughly 762 low to 774 high. The current weekly is trading as the manipulation leg: it has already purged that low at 759.48 while holding the body inside. If this week closes back above 762, the model completes and next week becomes the distribution candle, with expansion toward the opposite side of the range at 773–774 and the 780 August high as the extended objective.
That means the whole thesis rests on Friday's close. A weekly close below 759.48 turns the sweep into acceptance and kills the setup — at that point the early-August impulse gap becomes the target instead.
Worth noting the seasonal backdrop cuts the other way. September is historically the weakest month for the S&P, so this is a counter-seasonal setup that needs the liquidity grab to resolve quickly.
Invalidation: weekly close below previous weekly low
DISCLAMER: This is not a financial advice, do you own study before making a decision on the real market
The path I'm watching on the 15m: a sweep below 759.35 to take out the stops resting under the range low, followed by a reclaim of 762.34 and a rotation toward the 770 area. Failure to reclaim within a few candles invalidates it.
Weekly CRT
The higher timeframe lines up with this. Last week is the range candle — roughly 762 low to 774 high. The current weekly is trading as the manipulation leg: it has already purged that low at 759.48 while holding the body inside. If this week closes back above 762, the model completes and next week becomes the distribution candle, with expansion toward the opposite side of the range at 773–774 and the 780 August high as the extended objective.
That means the whole thesis rests on Friday's close. A weekly close below 759.48 turns the sweep into acceptance and kills the setup — at that point the early-August impulse gap becomes the target instead.
Worth noting the seasonal backdrop cuts the other way. September is historically the weakest month for the S&P, so this is a counter-seasonal setup that needs the liquidity grab to resolve quickly.
Invalidation: weekly close below previous weekly low
DISCLAMER: This is not a financial advice, do you own study before making a decision on the real market
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。