USDCAD continues to hold a relatively strong structure. After the sharp move toward 1.4000, price has avoided a deeper selloff and is now consolidating just above the breakout area. From my perspective, buyers still have the upper hand.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the Fed’s hawkish stance and the U.S.–Canada yield differential, while the Canadian dollar remains near multi-week lows. At the same time, weaker oil prices are adding further pressure on the CAD. The Bank of Canada remains cautious about inflation, which could provide some support for the currency, but so far it has not been enough to reverse the USD’s advantage.
On the H1 chart, USDCAD remains inside an ascending channel and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. The 1.3955–1.3965 area previously acted as resistance, but after the breakout it is now becoming an important support zone. With price currently trading around 1.3980, a pullback toward this area would still fit the broader bullish structure.
My preferred scenario is for buyers to continue defending the breakout area and push USDCAD into another leg higher. If the structure holds, 1.4000 is the first upside target, while a break above this level could open the way toward 1.4050.
As long as the 1.3955–1.3965 area remains intact, bullish continuation remains my primary scenario.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the Fed’s hawkish stance and the U.S.–Canada yield differential, while the Canadian dollar remains near multi-week lows. At the same time, weaker oil prices are adding further pressure on the CAD. The Bank of Canada remains cautious about inflation, which could provide some support for the currency, but so far it has not been enough to reverse the USD’s advantage.
On the H1 chart, USDCAD remains inside an ascending channel and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. The 1.3955–1.3965 area previously acted as resistance, but after the breakout it is now becoming an important support zone. With price currently trading around 1.3980, a pullback toward this area would still fit the broader bullish structure.
My preferred scenario is for buyers to continue defending the breakout area and push USDCAD into another leg higher. If the structure holds, 1.4000 is the first upside target, while a break above this level could open the way toward 1.4050.
As long as the 1.3955–1.3965 area remains intact, bullish continuation remains my primary scenario.
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