USDJPY slowly dropped lower following a bearish DXY. JPY remained around the same level.
The dollar saw a significant drop due to a shift from a 35% expectation to an 85% expectation that Hasset will become the next fed chair. The expectations rose after Trump again mentioned that he already knows who he wants as a new fed chair early in 2026.
Why are people looking at Hasset to replace Powell?
Trump is know to be in heavy favor of rate cuts and since Powell doesn't listen to Trump's recommendations, everybody is looking at Hasset since he has a dovish stance and will very likely start easing, which is ofcourse what trump wants.
What is next for the dollar?
Since this is big news for the dollar and will probably cause multiple rate cuts in december, the markets are going to price these in more and more the closer we get to the replacement of the fed chair. This means medium-term bearish pressure on the dollar, however we already saw a 0.4% drop today on the DXY and traded under previous monthly lows. This could cause a reaction before we see further downside this month to the 98.500-98.000 range.
We also saw bad ADP news pressuring the dollar even more, bringing the probability even higher for a rate cut in december.
The Yen stayed steady and didn't move a lot since yesterday.
Investors are still cautious with yen longs cause of the JP10Y demand.
Yen longs for now are not on the table and I will wait for further development to see how traders position going into high probability rate hikes in december.
The dollar saw a significant drop due to a shift from a 35% expectation to an 85% expectation that Hasset will become the next fed chair. The expectations rose after Trump again mentioned that he already knows who he wants as a new fed chair early in 2026.
Why are people looking at Hasset to replace Powell?
Trump is know to be in heavy favor of rate cuts and since Powell doesn't listen to Trump's recommendations, everybody is looking at Hasset since he has a dovish stance and will very likely start easing, which is ofcourse what trump wants.
What is next for the dollar?
Since this is big news for the dollar and will probably cause multiple rate cuts in december, the markets are going to price these in more and more the closer we get to the replacement of the fed chair. This means medium-term bearish pressure on the dollar, however we already saw a 0.4% drop today on the DXY and traded under previous monthly lows. This could cause a reaction before we see further downside this month to the 98.500-98.000 range.
We also saw bad ADP news pressuring the dollar even more, bringing the probability even higher for a rate cut in december.
The Yen stayed steady and didn't move a lot since yesterday.
Investors are still cautious with yen longs cause of the JP10Y demand.
Yen longs for now are not on the table and I will wait for further development to see how traders position going into high probability rate hikes in december.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。