I think we're getting really close to a large spike in volatility.
I think it's likely that vol will continue to fall into next week (and potentially a big longer into November), and if we can get down to the $8-$8.50 region, that there's strong support there and that could trigger a reversal.
SPY is almost to my upper levels of $709-716, and if we can see a push up there and a drop down to the support levels in UVIX that should trigger a reversal on both charts.
I do think the spike in volatility will be strong.
The most probable levels on the chart for a spike to find resistance in is $110-117, which would be a spike of 1100%-1200% or so if you were to catch the move entirely, and of course if the idea plays out.
I've also marked other resistance levels, should we get a smaller spike.
Could be the best trade of the year if it comes to fruition. Going to be watching the chart over the next week or so and will likely bid those levels with some calls for a trade.
I think it's likely that vol will continue to fall into next week (and potentially a big longer into November), and if we can get down to the $8-$8.50 region, that there's strong support there and that could trigger a reversal.
SPY is almost to my upper levels of $709-716, and if we can see a push up there and a drop down to the support levels in UVIX that should trigger a reversal on both charts.
I do think the spike in volatility will be strong.
The most probable levels on the chart for a spike to find resistance in is $110-117, which would be a spike of 1100%-1200% or so if you were to catch the move entirely, and of course if the idea plays out.
I've also marked other resistance levels, should we get a smaller spike.
Could be the best trade of the year if it comes to fruition. Going to be watching the chart over the next week or so and will likely bid those levels with some calls for a trade.
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Getting pretty close to the buy level. Should hit in the next week or so.ノート
Still not long UVIX yet, just waiting for it to make it's way down to the target for best risk/reward. Price tapped resistance again today (3rd time), which usually creates a powerful move in the opposite direction.
So as long as we don't surpass the highs today and close above them, then I think we should see a final move lower into the $8.50ish range which will be the best buying opportunity for calls into Feb/March.
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Starting to get down into the buy area... Am waiting until next week until I start taking a position though.ノート
Into the buy zone now. I think there may be one more capitulation move down before a spike, but here between $8.15 and the $7 range is a good place to start accumulating for 2-3 months out.ノート
I've started to scale into feb calls here.ノート
Thinking the Jan 7th pivot will be the pivot to bid.ノート
Alright obviously volatility is up this morning. We'll have to see if this is just a spike or whether this is the start of a larger move when the market opens.To me the trigger that you'll want to be long is breaking through the $8 region on UVIX and losing SPY $672. The combination of those two things happening is the trigger for the idea.
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Long via Feb 20th calls.ノート
Looking like the start of the move here to me. Again, important areas: SPY closing below $689.50, $686 and finally the $666-672 regions should all accelerate selling. Those are key areas of support.On Uvix, breaking above $8-9 region should accelerate the move higher.
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Update: Closed under $689.50 yesterday which led to continuation to the downside today. Right above $686 today (I'll count it though as it technically till closed under support).Next levels down are $666-672, if we close under $650 we will see a large drop. Again key level in UVIx is above $8-9.
I think what's making this hard to trade is that I don't think this will be a long drawn out move. I think it'll be a quick spike (potentially 1-2 days)-- so timing this is hard.
I have a ton of lotto calls incase this plays out and am trying not to trade this daily. So far price action supports the thesis, but we'll need a catalyst to get the bottom to drop out for the market and for the vix spike to finally set in.
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Added some calls for March opex here. All spot positions are in profit. Just gotta wait for the move to play out from here as I have no clue when that'll be.Charts looking good for this to play out. Again under $672 in SPY and above $8 in UVIX is important to see more selling.
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Added more calls for March opex today. Charts are looking like we're getting very close to a larger move.Daily and higher timeframes all looking good.
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Remember a close above $8-9 should mean the larger move is starting...So far it's looking like that could happen.
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Alright, breaking important levels here, if we close above 8-9 going into the weekend, it can create the conditions for the much larger move.ノート
Chart still looks positive to me, I think it's likely we get up to the $26-30 region (likely the blue trend line) and reject there... the larger move will come once we break the trend line.ノート
I'll likely take profits on some of my vol positions today. If we can sweep $660, I think that potentially sets up a buy for the index for a few weeks. Then the sell should come in April or May.ノート
If we see another spike down in UVIX next week or the following week into the $7.50 range or lower, I'll likely start accumulating calls gain for May options expiration.Being patient as the market chops/bounces.
I don't really think vol can expand too much until after April 15th vixperation.
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Broke below $7.50, and now I think there's potential we can continue lower. I haven't added any exposure back yet, I think there's potential to see a vix crush back to $4.80 or so, which would be the ultimate trigger long for UVIX. Same targets would play out on the chart if this were to happen.
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So far so good... Starting to scale into UVIX calls again for May/June while keeping calls on select names in equities (mainly MARA). Looking for 703-716.
This chart should be the guide.
Think the vix move plays out by the end of the box on this chart June 5th
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Alright I think it's time now to start scaling into UVIX... We should see 716 spy tomorrow (we hit it in overnight hours yesterday).I've started loading up on calls for May and June.
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Upside target hit today. Just like on the downside it's possible to overshoot, but I'm taking my positioning to max UVIX calls over the next few days.ノート
Went to 100% position in UVIX today.
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