Date: 08 July 2026
Current Price During Analysis: 60.57900
Instrument:
XAGUSD
Bias: Bearish, but confirmation-based execution only
HTF Bias: Bearish Delivery Expected
Silver is currently showing signs of bearish delivery from higher-timeframe supply. On the Weekly timeframe, price has reacted from a major Supply Zone FVG / Bearish OB-FVG. After tapping this premium area, price gave bearish displacement, which suggests that sellers are currently in control.
Based on this reaction, my broader expectation is that XAGUSD may continue delivering lower over the coming days or weeks, with the main draw on liquidity sitting near the Weekly Bullish OB-FVG demand zone around 54.37838.
However, this does not mean I will sell blindly. The higher-timeframe bias is bearish, but the entry must come from proper liquidity sweep, displacement, MSS, and retest confirmation.
Daily Timeframe Confluence
The Daily timeframe is also supporting the bearish narrative.
Price has rejected from a Daily Advance OB-FVG supply zone, and after that rejection, the next important draw appears to be the downside liquidity pool around 55.59670. This level is important because it sits just above the Weekly demand POI.
So from a Daily perspective, the market has a clean downside objective:
Daily liquidity pool: 55.59670
Weekly demand POI: 54.37838
This makes the bearish idea stronger, provided price continues to respect premium supply zones.
4H / 1H Execution Context
On the 4H timeframe, there is a Bullish OB-FVG demand zone around 57.90800. This level is important because price can react from there before continuing lower.
So, I will treat 57.90800 as a major partial profit zone, not a place to aggressively hold full shorts without managing risk.
On the 1H timeframe, price is currently near a Bearish OB-FVG / premium selling zone. If price rejects from this 1H bearish POI and gives impulsive bearish movement, then it can create a fresh Daily selling zone and give stronger confirmation for continuation.
But if price breaks above this current 1H bearish POI, then I will not force a short. In that case, I will wait for price to sweep the 4H swing-high liquidity / PDH, then watch for bearish displacement and a valid 1H/15M short setup.
Trade Plan
Scenario 1: Direct Rejection From Current Bearish POI
If price rejects from the current 1H/15M bearish POI, then I will wait for:
Bearish displacement
15M or 1H MSS / CHOCH with body close
Fresh Bearish OB-FVG / imbalance creation
Retest of that imbalance
Rejection from retest
Only after this confirmation, I will look for a short entry.
Scenario 2: Liquidity Sweep Before Short[/b]
If price breaks the current 1H bearish zone, then I will wait for price to sweep upside liquidity near the PDH / 4H swing high.
After the sweep, I want to see:
Liquidity sweep above the high
Bearish displacement
15M / 1H MSS with body close
Retest of newly created bearish imbalance
Rejection from that retest
This will give a cleaner short setup with better risk-to-reward.
Targets
Target Level Reason
T1 59.44650 PDL / first liquidity draw
T2 57.90800 4H Bullish OB-FVG demand
T3 55.59670 Daily swing-low liquidity
T4 54.37838 Weekly Bullish OB-FVG demand
Risk Management
The most important level for trade management is 57.90800.
Although my higher-timeframe bias is bearish, this level is a 4H demand zone, so price can pull back from there. I will not hold the full position aggressively into this level. Partial profit booking or trailing stop management will be important.
Stop loss should be placed above the relevant swing high or swept liquidity, depending on the entry model.
Key Mistake to Avoid
The biggest mistake would be selling only because the Weekly and Daily bias are bearish.
Bias is not entry.
Entry must come only after:
liquidity sweep;
bearish displacement;
MSS / CHOCH with body close;
retest of Bearish OB-FVG / imbalance;
rejection confirmation.
Until this appears, price can still manipulate higher before the real bearish move begins.
Final View
My XAGUSD bias remains bearish as long as price respects the premium supply zones. The major downside objectives are 59.44650, 57.90800, 55.59670, and finally 54.37838.
The best short opportunity will either come from a direct rejection from the current 1H Bearish OB-FVG or after a sweep of PDH / 4H swing-high liquidity followed by bearish displacement.
I will stay patient and wait for confirmation before executing.
Current Price During Analysis: 60.57900
Instrument:
XAGUSD Bias: Bearish, but confirmation-based execution only
HTF Bias: Bearish Delivery Expected
Silver is currently showing signs of bearish delivery from higher-timeframe supply. On the Weekly timeframe, price has reacted from a major Supply Zone FVG / Bearish OB-FVG. After tapping this premium area, price gave bearish displacement, which suggests that sellers are currently in control.
Based on this reaction, my broader expectation is that XAGUSD may continue delivering lower over the coming days or weeks, with the main draw on liquidity sitting near the Weekly Bullish OB-FVG demand zone around 54.37838.
However, this does not mean I will sell blindly. The higher-timeframe bias is bearish, but the entry must come from proper liquidity sweep, displacement, MSS, and retest confirmation.
Daily Timeframe Confluence
The Daily timeframe is also supporting the bearish narrative.
Price has rejected from a Daily Advance OB-FVG supply zone, and after that rejection, the next important draw appears to be the downside liquidity pool around 55.59670. This level is important because it sits just above the Weekly demand POI.
So from a Daily perspective, the market has a clean downside objective:
Daily liquidity pool: 55.59670
Weekly demand POI: 54.37838
This makes the bearish idea stronger, provided price continues to respect premium supply zones.
4H / 1H Execution Context
On the 4H timeframe, there is a Bullish OB-FVG demand zone around 57.90800. This level is important because price can react from there before continuing lower.
So, I will treat 57.90800 as a major partial profit zone, not a place to aggressively hold full shorts without managing risk.
On the 1H timeframe, price is currently near a Bearish OB-FVG / premium selling zone. If price rejects from this 1H bearish POI and gives impulsive bearish movement, then it can create a fresh Daily selling zone and give stronger confirmation for continuation.
But if price breaks above this current 1H bearish POI, then I will not force a short. In that case, I will wait for price to sweep the 4H swing-high liquidity / PDH, then watch for bearish displacement and a valid 1H/15M short setup.
Trade Plan
Scenario 1: Direct Rejection From Current Bearish POI
If price rejects from the current 1H/15M bearish POI, then I will wait for:
Bearish displacement
15M or 1H MSS / CHOCH with body close
Fresh Bearish OB-FVG / imbalance creation
Retest of that imbalance
Rejection from retest
Only after this confirmation, I will look for a short entry.
Scenario 2: Liquidity Sweep Before Short[/b]
If price breaks the current 1H bearish zone, then I will wait for price to sweep upside liquidity near the PDH / 4H swing high.
After the sweep, I want to see:
Liquidity sweep above the high
Bearish displacement
15M / 1H MSS with body close
Retest of newly created bearish imbalance
Rejection from that retest
This will give a cleaner short setup with better risk-to-reward.
Targets
Target Level Reason
T1 59.44650 PDL / first liquidity draw
T2 57.90800 4H Bullish OB-FVG demand
T3 55.59670 Daily swing-low liquidity
T4 54.37838 Weekly Bullish OB-FVG demand
Risk Management
The most important level for trade management is 57.90800.
Although my higher-timeframe bias is bearish, this level is a 4H demand zone, so price can pull back from there. I will not hold the full position aggressively into this level. Partial profit booking or trailing stop management will be important.
Stop loss should be placed above the relevant swing high or swept liquidity, depending on the entry model.
Key Mistake to Avoid
The biggest mistake would be selling only because the Weekly and Daily bias are bearish.
Bias is not entry.
Entry must come only after:
liquidity sweep;
bearish displacement;
MSS / CHOCH with body close;
retest of Bearish OB-FVG / imbalance;
rejection confirmation.
Until this appears, price can still manipulate higher before the real bearish move begins.
Final View
My XAGUSD bias remains bearish as long as price respects the premium supply zones. The major downside objectives are 59.44650, 57.90800, 55.59670, and finally 54.37838.
The best short opportunity will either come from a direct rejection from the current 1H Bearish OB-FVG or after a sweep of PDH / 4H swing-high liquidity followed by bearish displacement.
I will stay patient and wait for confirmation before executing.
トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
Target Done and Dusted
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。