銀/米ドル
ショート

XAGUSD: Bearish Channel Keeps Sellers in Control

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XAGUSD remains within a clearly defined bearish channel on the H1 timeframe. After peaking around the 60.5–60.8 zone, the price has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers retain control of the short-term structure.

Currently, the price is staging a minor rebound from the support zone near 57.3 but remains below the Ichimoku cloud and the upper boundary of the bearish channel. The 58.05 area serves as a critical resistance zone, representing a confluence of the downtrend line, short-term resistance, and the lower edge of the cloud. Should the price approach this level but fail to close above it, the rebound is likely to lose momentum quickly.

From a macroeconomic perspective, silver faces pressure from a strong US dollar, elevated US bond yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Ahead of US CPI data, capital flows remain cautious regarding non-yielding precious metals.

The preferred scenario involves a rebound to retest the 58.05 level, followed by a reversal toward the channel's lower boundary near 56.23.

Suggested strategy: Sell around 57.95–58.05; Take Profit (TP) at 56.23; invalidate the trade if the price closes above 58.30 on the H1 timeframe.

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