Gold prices extended gains amid escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, after China sanctioned shipping and the US President affirmed the commitment to maintaining high tariffs on Chinese goods.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown may introduce additional uncertainty regarding the timeliness of monetary policy in addressing the recently weakening labor market. The postponement of the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report raises further concern, as the Fed requires more data to determine its primary focus between the labor market and inflation—its dual mandate—which are currently diverging. Elevated inflation, driven by recent trade policies, requires the Fed to evaluate whether the price increases are transitory or if they will become prolonged and spread to sectors beyond tariff-sensitive goods.
Markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts this year but remain uncertain about the outlook for next year, with some Fed officials signaling a cautious stance. Should the labor market continue to deteriorate while inflation remains elevated, the US economy could face stagnation, creating a favorable environment for gold.
In Australia, recent labor data has increased economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate for Sep rose to a four-year high of 4.5% from 4.3% in the previous month, driven by a decrease in job openings and an increase in job seekers concerned about future income prospects. The weakening labor market has lifted market expectations for an RBA rate cut in Nov to over 70% from a previous reading of 40%, weighing on the Australian dollar.
From a technical perspective, XAUAUD is trading within an upward range with expanding EMAs (21,78), indicating strong bullish momentum, though it may face pressure from profit-taking. A breakout above the Fibonacci Extension 361.8% at 6588 could see the price target the Fibonacci Extension 423.6% at 6866. Conversely, a failure to breach the 6588 level could result in a decline to test the support at 6140.
By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown may introduce additional uncertainty regarding the timeliness of monetary policy in addressing the recently weakening labor market. The postponement of the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report raises further concern, as the Fed requires more data to determine its primary focus between the labor market and inflation—its dual mandate—which are currently diverging. Elevated inflation, driven by recent trade policies, requires the Fed to evaluate whether the price increases are transitory or if they will become prolonged and spread to sectors beyond tariff-sensitive goods.
Markets are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts this year but remain uncertain about the outlook for next year, with some Fed officials signaling a cautious stance. Should the labor market continue to deteriorate while inflation remains elevated, the US economy could face stagnation, creating a favorable environment for gold.
In Australia, recent labor data has increased economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate for Sep rose to a four-year high of 4.5% from 4.3% in the previous month, driven by a decrease in job openings and an increase in job seekers concerned about future income prospects. The weakening labor market has lifted market expectations for an RBA rate cut in Nov to over 70% from a previous reading of 40%, weighing on the Australian dollar.
From a technical perspective, XAUAUD is trading within an upward range with expanding EMAs (21,78), indicating strong bullish momentum, though it may face pressure from profit-taking. A breakout above the Fibonacci Extension 361.8% at 6588 could see the price target the Fibonacci Extension 423.6% at 6866. Conversely, a failure to breach the 6588 level could result in a decline to test the support at 6140.
By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
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これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。