Gold XAUUSD – Elliott Wave Pullback or Continuation? [11.26]
Hi guys, Anfibo’s here!
XAUUSD Short-Term Trading Plan
Overall Picture
On H1, gold is still trading inside a rising channel, but price has just completed a potential 5-wave impulsive leg into the upper boundary of the structure. From here, we’ve got short-term bearish confirmation around the 4147 area, suggesting that price may be entering an ABC corrective phase within the channel.
In other words:
Bigger picture: structure remains bullish as long as the channel holds.
Short term: I’m prepared for a corrective drop before the next directional leg.
On the macro side, fresh data show the U.S. is burning around 22B USD per day, with October spending at 688.7B vs 404B in tax revenue. The first month of fiscal year 2026 already printed a record 284.4B deficit, and interest payments alone reached 1.24T over the last 12 months – about 24 cents of every tax dollar going just to service debt.
This kind of fiscal pressure is structurally supportive for gold in the long run, but it doesn’t prevent short-term pullbacks inside the current channel.
Trading Plan – Playing the ABC Correction
I’m focusing on two key zones derived from the Elliott structure:
one for tactical sells from premium prices, and one for buys at the end of the correction.
>>> Scenario #1 – Tactical SELL from the Upper Zone (Short-Term Bearish)
If price retests the short-term bearish confirmation area and fills the upper liquidity zone, I’ll look for sell setups:
Sell entry: 4150 – 4152
Stop loss: 4158
Take profit levels: 4140 – 4133 – 4110 – 4088
Idea: fade the final push into the upper boundary / FVG area, targeting completion of wave A–B–C towards the mid and lower parts of the channel. This is a short-term play against the local high, not a long-term bearish view on gold.
>>> Scenario #2 – BUY the End of Wave C (Continuation with Trend)
If the ABC correction extends into the lower part of the short-term structure and shows bullish reaction, I’ll switch to a buy-the-dip plan:
Buy entry: 4130 – 4133
Stop loss: 4125
Take profit: 4145 – 4160
Idea: buy near the potential end of wave C, in confluence with channel support, for a continuation back toward the upper boundary and possibly a new impulsive leg.
Risk Management
Trade only when price respects one of the planned zones – no chasing in the middle of the range.
Always wait for clear confirmation (rejection wick, market structure shift, or strong reaction) before entering.
Keep risk per trade controlled and aim for Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2.
Do not hold both scenarios in opposite directions at the same time – choose the plan that the market confirms.
If price invalidates the structure (strong break beyond SL without reaction), step aside and reassess the wave count.
Conclusion
Gold is likely moving into an Elliott ABC correction phase inside a still-bullish channel. That gives us room for a tactical short from premium levels and a high-probability dip buy if price completes wave C lower. With macro debt and deficit pressures quietly supporting the long-term bullish case, this week is all about executing clean setups inside structure, not forcing trades.
STAY PATIENT, FOLLOW YOUR PLAN, AND TRADE WITH DISCIPLINE, GUYS! 💛📈
Hi guys, Anfibo’s here!
XAUUSD Short-Term Trading Plan
Overall Picture
On H1, gold is still trading inside a rising channel, but price has just completed a potential 5-wave impulsive leg into the upper boundary of the structure. From here, we’ve got short-term bearish confirmation around the 4147 area, suggesting that price may be entering an ABC corrective phase within the channel.
In other words:
Bigger picture: structure remains bullish as long as the channel holds.
Short term: I’m prepared for a corrective drop before the next directional leg.
On the macro side, fresh data show the U.S. is burning around 22B USD per day, with October spending at 688.7B vs 404B in tax revenue. The first month of fiscal year 2026 already printed a record 284.4B deficit, and interest payments alone reached 1.24T over the last 12 months – about 24 cents of every tax dollar going just to service debt.
This kind of fiscal pressure is structurally supportive for gold in the long run, but it doesn’t prevent short-term pullbacks inside the current channel.
Trading Plan – Playing the ABC Correction
I’m focusing on two key zones derived from the Elliott structure:
one for tactical sells from premium prices, and one for buys at the end of the correction.
>>> Scenario #1 – Tactical SELL from the Upper Zone (Short-Term Bearish)
If price retests the short-term bearish confirmation area and fills the upper liquidity zone, I’ll look for sell setups:
Sell entry: 4150 – 4152
Stop loss: 4158
Take profit levels: 4140 – 4133 – 4110 – 4088
Idea: fade the final push into the upper boundary / FVG area, targeting completion of wave A–B–C towards the mid and lower parts of the channel. This is a short-term play against the local high, not a long-term bearish view on gold.
>>> Scenario #2 – BUY the End of Wave C (Continuation with Trend)
If the ABC correction extends into the lower part of the short-term structure and shows bullish reaction, I’ll switch to a buy-the-dip plan:
Buy entry: 4130 – 4133
Stop loss: 4125
Take profit: 4145 – 4160
Idea: buy near the potential end of wave C, in confluence with channel support, for a continuation back toward the upper boundary and possibly a new impulsive leg.
Risk Management
Trade only when price respects one of the planned zones – no chasing in the middle of the range.
Always wait for clear confirmation (rejection wick, market structure shift, or strong reaction) before entering.
Keep risk per trade controlled and aim for Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2.
Do not hold both scenarios in opposite directions at the same time – choose the plan that the market confirms.
If price invalidates the structure (strong break beyond SL without reaction), step aside and reassess the wave count.
Conclusion
Gold is likely moving into an Elliott ABC correction phase inside a still-bullish channel. That gives us room for a tactical short from premium levels and a high-probability dip buy if price completes wave C lower. With macro debt and deficit pressures quietly supporting the long-term bullish case, this week is all about executing clean setups inside structure, not forcing trades.
STAY PATIENT, FOLLOW YOUR PLAN, AND TRADE WITH DISCIPLINE, GUYS! 💛📈
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。