Gold is trading inside a clear rising channel, and the current price action shows that buyers are still defending the short-term recovery structure. From Kelly’s view, the market is building a new Elliott Wave sequence, with the latest pullback looking more like a healthy correction than a full bearish reversal.
The key idea is simple: as long as price holds above the trend-following buy zone, the bullish wave structure remains valid.
⟡ Market structure
Gold has recovered strongly from the lower area and is now moving within an upward channel. The previous resistance around 4,350 acted as a strong barrier, but price has already tested that zone several times and is now trying to build support above the rising trendline.
The current pullback into the 4,275–4,300 area is important because it aligns with the trend-following buying zone. If buyers defend this area, gold may continue forming higher lows and prepare for the next upside leg.
The upper liquidity area around 4,520–4,530 remains the larger upside reference if momentum continues.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,275–4,300: trend-following buying zone
◌ 4,307: current reaction area
◌ 4,350–4,375: strong resistance and breakout area
◌ 4,420: next upside checkpoint
◌ 4,520–4,530: wave 5 completion / upper liquidity zone
◌ Below 4,275: area where the bullish channel structure weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bullish 5-wave structure inside the rising channel.
Wave 1 started from the lower base.
Wave 2 corrected into channel support.
Wave 3 pushed price towards the strong resistance zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a controlled pullback into the buy zone.
If this area holds, wave 5 may begin and push gold towards the upper channel target.
This is why Kelly would not read the current pullback as bearish yet. The correction is happening inside an uptrend channel, not below it.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the 4,275–4,300 buying zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,275–4,300 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below 4,260 or below the confirmed reaction low
Take profit 1: 4,350
Take profit 2: 4,420
Take profit 3: 4,520–4,530
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,275 and loses the rising channel support, the bullish Elliott structure weakens and the chart may need a new read.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a buy-the-pullback structure inside a rising channel. The market is not showing a clean bearish reversal yet, because buyers are still defending the channel rhythm.
The cleaner setup is to watch the reaction around the trend-following buying zone. If price holds there, the next bullish wave may develop towards the upper liquidity area.
Gold is still building an Elliott Wave recovery.
As long as the rising channel holds, the upside structure remains active.
Share your view below.
トレード稼働中
Gold is showing signs of breaking below the trendline, but this hasn't been fully confirmed yet. The crucial breakout point lies below the support level of 4218. I'll share a further bearish scenario if the price confirms this.
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
関連の投稿
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。