Gold has been in a corrective phase since April 2025. The broader complex correction or triangle formation now appears to be complete, and a high-probability bullish signal is emerging.
On the 1-hour chart, a clear 5-wave impulsive pattern has unfolded. I expect one more pullback to complete a 3-wave corrective move for Wave 2, ideally retracing toward the prior Wave 4 zone.
If this scenario plays out, it would provide a high-conviction entry ahead of a potential Wave 3 extension.
However, if price continues its current momentum and closes above $3,390 (the end of Wave 1), I’ll consider that Wave 2 may already be complete, in which case I would look to enter on confirmation of breakout strength (strong RSI reading).
On the 1-hour chart, a clear 5-wave impulsive pattern has unfolded. I expect one more pullback to complete a 3-wave corrective move for Wave 2, ideally retracing toward the prior Wave 4 zone.
If this scenario plays out, it would provide a high-conviction entry ahead of a potential Wave 3 extension.
However, if price continues its current momentum and closes above $3,390 (the end of Wave 1), I’ll consider that Wave 2 may already be complete, in which case I would look to enter on confirmation of breakout strength (strong RSI reading).
ノート
7th August update - Looks like wave 2 could either be an expanded or running flat; essentially the close above $3,390 is a fake breakout. Now expecting price to come back down to $3,375 and $3,340 range (this is 0.6 - 1.618 fib of the 1st wave down of the correction / pullback) to complete wave 2 and prep for the 3rd wave entry.注文をキャンセル
The price action following the post does not align with the typical behaviour of a Wave 2. It’s possible we’re still in a complex Wave 4, with a fifth wave yet to complete.I’ll stand aside for now and reassess once the structure becomes clearer.
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