Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean:
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。