Fundamentals:
1️⃣ Geopolitics: US/Israel war with Iran → 🟢 Positive for gold
🔸Nothing to suggest peace yet.
2️⃣ Fed rate - 3.50-3.75% → ⚪ Neutral
🔸FOMC meeting today (March 18). Probability of holding the current rate: 95.5-96%.
🔸First dot plot of 2026 (anonymous directors' opinions on future rates) - key focus on the impact of oil prices.
3️⃣ US Inflation → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸The March CPI (released April 10) is the first to reflect the jump in oil prices.
🔸The market is pricing in rising inflation → positive for gold as a hedge.
4️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) - ~99.50 → ⚪ Neutral
🔸Unusual situation: the dollar and gold are simultaneously in upward trends. Both are safe-haven assets.
5️⃣ Central Bank Purchases → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Banks are buying more.
6️⃣ Gold ETF Flows → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): inflow of 21 billion (~226 tonnes) - the second strongest quarter of all time of record.
7️⃣ Supply and Demand Balance → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): total demand of ~1,206 tonnes - the highest for Q1 since 2016.
8️⃣ Oil → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Brent: ~$102.64, WTI: ~$94.23.
🔸Expensive oil → rising inflation expectations → Fed unable to cut rates → stagflation potential → gold rising.
9️⃣ US Treasury yields → ⚪ Neutral
🔸The real yield of 1.88% is historically high, but gold is currently rising due to other indicators.
Conclusion👈🏻
Priority scenario: continued growth of XAUUSD. Fundamental decline only due to de-escalation of the conflict with Iran and falling oil prices.
Technical analysis:
1️⃣СCI - below -100. A move to 0 is required for a trade.
2️⃣RSI - around 50. Suspended. Trade confirmation - a move above 50
3️⃣VPVR zones - 5000, 5090, and 5178
4️⃣Fibonacci levels - the main ones: a lot of levels for movement. The 23.6% is important right now, as it's near the heavy 200 EMA.
5️⃣Moving average crossovers/breakouts - a trade requires a confirmed breakout of the 50 EMA from below.
6️⃣Elder timeframe (h4) - consolidation near the 200 EMA on h4. A move above this EMA is a trade confirmation.
Entry, stop, take profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5016 from below
🔸Stop: Preliminary 4965. Stop loss for consolidation below the 200 EMA on H4
🔸Take: Fibonacci level at 5190
🔸Risk/reward: 3.88 at the TP level.
🔸Execution: Possible until next week.
Cancellation
🔸Price moves to a second downward extension at 4925 without breaking the 50 EMA or attempting to consolidate there. Recalculate everything then.
1️⃣ Geopolitics: US/Israel war with Iran → 🟢 Positive for gold
🔸Nothing to suggest peace yet.
2️⃣ Fed rate - 3.50-3.75% → ⚪ Neutral
🔸FOMC meeting today (March 18). Probability of holding the current rate: 95.5-96%.
🔸First dot plot of 2026 (anonymous directors' opinions on future rates) - key focus on the impact of oil prices.
3️⃣ US Inflation → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸The March CPI (released April 10) is the first to reflect the jump in oil prices.
🔸The market is pricing in rising inflation → positive for gold as a hedge.
4️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) - ~99.50 → ⚪ Neutral
🔸Unusual situation: the dollar and gold are simultaneously in upward trends. Both are safe-haven assets.
5️⃣ Central Bank Purchases → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Banks are buying more.
6️⃣ Gold ETF Flows → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): inflow of 21 billion (~226 tonnes) - the second strongest quarter of all time of record.
7️⃣ Supply and Demand Balance → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸For Q1 2026 (preliminary): total demand of ~1,206 tonnes - the highest for Q1 since 2016.
8️⃣ Oil → 🟢 Positive for Gold
🔸Brent: ~$102.64, WTI: ~$94.23.
🔸Expensive oil → rising inflation expectations → Fed unable to cut rates → stagflation potential → gold rising.
9️⃣ US Treasury yields → ⚪ Neutral
🔸The real yield of 1.88% is historically high, but gold is currently rising due to other indicators.
Conclusion👈🏻
Priority scenario: continued growth of XAUUSD. Fundamental decline only due to de-escalation of the conflict with Iran and falling oil prices.
Technical analysis:
1️⃣СCI - below -100. A move to 0 is required for a trade.
2️⃣RSI - around 50. Suspended. Trade confirmation - a move above 50
3️⃣VPVR zones - 5000, 5090, and 5178
4️⃣Fibonacci levels - the main ones: a lot of levels for movement. The 23.6% is important right now, as it's near the heavy 200 EMA.
5️⃣Moving average crossovers/breakouts - a trade requires a confirmed breakout of the 50 EMA from below.
6️⃣Elder timeframe (h4) - consolidation near the 200 EMA on h4. A move above this EMA is a trade confirmation.
Entry, stop, take profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5016 from below
🔸Stop: Preliminary 4965. Stop loss for consolidation below the 200 EMA on H4
🔸Take: Fibonacci level at 5190
🔸Risk/reward: 3.88 at the TP level.
🔸Execution: Possible until next week.
Cancellation
🔸Price moves to a second downward extension at 4925 without breaking the 50 EMA or attempting to consolidate there. Recalculate everything then.
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免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。