XAUUSD: Gold Regains $3,900 After a Bruising October. What to Watch This Week

Bullion starts November higher, but rate-hike expectations and last week’s forced-selling concerns leave the recovery facing an early test.

📈 Gold rebounds after October’s heavy losses

• Gold climbed roughly 0.9% to $3,911 an ounce early Monday, recovering some ground after falling 6.8% in October.
• The bounce offers relief following a difficult month, although bullion remains below $4,000—a clear reference point for traders assessing whether buyers can sustain the recovery.
• Friday’s selloff pushed spot gold to its lowest level since October 2025. Bullion fell about 4% to $3,870 during the session, while December futures settled at $3,898. A market usually associated with shelter proved vulnerable when investors needed cash elsewhere.
• Analysts pointed to possible forced selling during the technology rout. Investors facing margin calls — demands for additional collateral on leveraged positions — may sell liquid holdings such as gold to raise cash. That helps explain how bullion can fall alongside stocks even during heightened uncertainty.

🛢️ Cheaper oil offers some inflation relief

• Oil retreated sharply Monday while diplomatic talks continued over Iran. Brent fell more than 3% toward $109.70, with WTI near $100.58. Easing energy prices could temper inflation concerns and reduce pressure for higher interest rates, although continued tanker attacks leave supply risks unresolved.
• The rate outlook remains a significant obstacle. Markets assigned roughly a three-in-four probability to a December Fed hike. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields on cash and bonds increase the income investors forgo by holding it, making a sustained recovery more demanding.
• Treasury yields have eased considerably from October’s highs, with the US 10-year around 4.93% Monday. That offers a more supportive backdrop for bullion, but the next move depends partly on incoming data: renewed yield increases could quickly challenge the metal’s tentative rebound.

🔎 Jobs data puts the recovery to the test

• Friday’s US employment report is the week’s main macro checkpoint. Stronger hiring could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, while weaker figures could ease them.
• Gold traders will watch the dollar and Treasury-market reaction alongside the headline jobs number for evidence of changing rate expectations.
• Before payrolls, the calendar brings several opportunities for volatility. US ISM manufacturing arrives Monday, followed by Tuesday’s midterm elections and Wednesday’s ISM services report.
• The RBA and Bank of England also decide rates this week, keeping global inflation and borrowing costs in focus.
• Silver joined Monday’s recovery, rising roughly 2% toward $50 an ounce. A stronger recovery for both metals would need follow-through beyond the initial bounce, particularly if rate-hike expectations remain elevated.