OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
更新済 Day-Extreme Reversal Signals (SPY 5m)
What you'll see on the chart
5-minute scouts (small triangles + small labels). When a bar makes a new session low with one of the study shapes, it's marked with its honest hold-rate: 5m RevClose: holds 28% (base 14%) (green bar closing in its top third at the low — the most common day-low shape), 5m Spring: holds 17% (big lower wick, close held up), 5m V-confirm: holds 27% (green bar defending the prior bar's flush). Deliberately subtle styling — at 17–28% these are scouts, not entries. High-side scouts get the same treatment with their (weak) 11–12% numbers.
Hourly signals (full background band + large label). When a completed hourly bar prints one of the shapes at a session extreme, the next 12 five-minute bars get a colored band and a loud label: HOURLY RevClose at session low: DAY LOW 64% (base 35%). This is the real signal tier — teal bands for lows, orange for highs (with the high label honestly adding "expect a retest attempt," since even the best high pattern only holds 47%). Alerts fire on both hourly signal types.
The decision panel (top-right)
- Live session state: current session low/high, when each was set, and — the piece I think you'll use most — "Odds the day extreme has ALREADY printed: low ~X%, high ~Y%", interpolated live from the measured time-of-day curves as the session progresses. At 10:30 ET it'll say the low is ~47% likely already in but the high only ~32%.
- Hourly forming row: what shape the current, incomplete hourly bar is building (labeled provisional — it only becomes a signal at the hour close).
- The two structural rules, always visible: lows are V-shaped — 55% never retest within 30 minutes, don't wait for confirmation; highs retest 82% of the time — first touch is rarely final, exits can be patient.
- Timing reference (lows in by 10:00/10:30/11:30 on 37/47/60% of days; highs skew late) and the honesty footer distinguishing scout-grade from signal-grade percentages.
Design honesty, as always
The percentages are P(that extreme holds as the day's extreme) from real-time simulation on 60 days of 5m and 730 days of hourly data — the number you actually face in the moment, which is why they're much lower than the hindsight lifts from the study (a 3.9× lift collapsed to 28% precision once you can't peek at the future). None of this has been tested as an entry system with P&L — it's decision support for the scalps you're already taking within the daily-bias framework. The natural marriage: an hourly RevClose band firing while the bias panel shows an active long tier is the highest-alignment moment this whole project can currently produce. If you want, the next study can quantify exactly that intersection — hold-rate and forward return when hourly low-signals fire during active T1–T3 windows.
5-minute scouts (small triangles + small labels). When a bar makes a new session low with one of the study shapes, it's marked with its honest hold-rate: 5m RevClose: holds 28% (base 14%) (green bar closing in its top third at the low — the most common day-low shape), 5m Spring: holds 17% (big lower wick, close held up), 5m V-confirm: holds 27% (green bar defending the prior bar's flush). Deliberately subtle styling — at 17–28% these are scouts, not entries. High-side scouts get the same treatment with their (weak) 11–12% numbers.
Hourly signals (full background band + large label). When a completed hourly bar prints one of the shapes at a session extreme, the next 12 five-minute bars get a colored band and a loud label: HOURLY RevClose at session low: DAY LOW 64% (base 35%). This is the real signal tier — teal bands for lows, orange for highs (with the high label honestly adding "expect a retest attempt," since even the best high pattern only holds 47%). Alerts fire on both hourly signal types.
The decision panel (top-right)
- Live session state: current session low/high, when each was set, and — the piece I think you'll use most — "Odds the day extreme has ALREADY printed: low ~X%, high ~Y%", interpolated live from the measured time-of-day curves as the session progresses. At 10:30 ET it'll say the low is ~47% likely already in but the high only ~32%.
- Hourly forming row: what shape the current, incomplete hourly bar is building (labeled provisional — it only becomes a signal at the hour close).
- The two structural rules, always visible: lows are V-shaped — 55% never retest within 30 minutes, don't wait for confirmation; highs retest 82% of the time — first touch is rarely final, exits can be patient.
- Timing reference (lows in by 10:00/10:30/11:30 on 37/47/60% of days; highs skew late) and the honesty footer distinguishing scout-grade from signal-grade percentages.
Design honesty, as always
The percentages are P(that extreme holds as the day's extreme) from real-time simulation on 60 days of 5m and 730 days of hourly data — the number you actually face in the moment, which is why they're much lower than the hindsight lifts from the study (a 3.9× lift collapsed to 28% precision once you can't peek at the future). None of this has been tested as an entry system with P&L — it's decision support for the scalps you're already taking within the daily-bias framework. The natural marriage: an hourly RevClose band firing while the bias panel shows an active long tier is the highest-alignment moment this whole project can currently produce. If you want, the next study can quantify exactly that intersection — hold-rate and forward return when hourly low-signals fire during active T1–T3 windows.
リリースノート
small change so that I can show the actual chartオープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
Get more in-depth analysis on my website: joerodtrades.substack.com
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
Get more in-depth analysis on my website: joerodtrades.substack.com
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。