OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT

GOLDM Regime Detector v2.0

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## **GOLDM Regime Detector v2.0**

**Institutional-Grade Options Selling Framework for MCX Gold Mini**

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### **Overview**

GOLDM Regime Detector v2.0 is a **rule-based decision engine** built for systematic option sellers operating in **MCX Gold Mini (GOLDM)**.

Unlike traditional indicators that generate isolated signals, this framework continuously evaluates market structure and outputs a **complete trading stance** — covering **regime, structure, strike placement, position sizing, and exits**.

The objective is simple:

> **Trade the right structure, in the right environment, with controlled risk.**

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### **Regime Architecture**

The model classifies market conditions into four execution states:

* **Regime 1 — Premium Selling (Full Size)**
Range-bound market with stable volatility
→ Deploy **Iron Condors / Strangles**

* **Regime 2 — Directional Selling (Full Size)**
Orderly trend with controlled volatility
→ Deploy **Credit Spreads aligned with trend**

* **Regime 3 — Reduced Exposure (Half Size)**
Suboptimal or uncertain conditions
→ Trade **wider strikes with reduced capital**

* **Regime 4 — Defensive Mode**
Volatility expansion or structural break
→ **No new exposure — manage or exit existing positions**

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### **Model Construction**

The system integrates multiple dimensions of market behavior:

* **Trend** → EMA slope + ADX (direction + strength)
* **Volatility** → ATR percentile + expansion dynamics
* **Positioning** → Bollinger %B (range vs extremes)
* **Time Risk** → Days to Expiry (DTE constraints)
* **Event Risk** → Manual override for macro events

Each regime is triggered only when conditions align across these factors, ensuring **context-aware execution rather than reactive trading**.

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### **Strike Engineering**

All strike levels are **systematically derived from ATR**, ensuring consistency across volatility regimes:

* Dynamic distance from spot based on regime quality
* Wider strikes in adverse conditions
* Rounded to **MCX-standard 500 intervals**

This removes discretionary bias from strike selection and aligns risk with market conditions.

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### **Embedded Risk Framework**

The script includes a predefined exit structure:

* **Profit Capture** → 40–50% premium decay
* **Stop Loss** → Premium expansion threshold (2× entry)
* **Time Exit** → Forced closure near expiry
* **Regime Transition** → Automatic shift to defensive posture
* **Partial Management** → Profit lock-in with trailing logic

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### **Execution Interface**

* Real-time **regime classification**
* **Suggested structure** (IC / spreads)
* **Strike levels plotted on chart**
* **Confidence score**
* **DTE and event warnings**
* Fully integrated **decision dashboard**

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### **Usage Guidelines**

* Apply on **MCX:GOLDM1! or front-month futures**
* Optimized for **Daily timeframe**
* Execute systematically — **regime → structure → strikes → risk management**
* Designed for traders prioritizing **process over prediction**

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### **Positioning**

This framework is built for traders who:

* Prefer **structured decision-making over discretionary trading**
* Want **consistency across market regimes**
* Understand that **edge comes from execution discipline, not prediction**

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### **Disclaimer**

This tool provides a structured framework for decision-making.
Execution, risk management, and capital allocation remain the responsibility of the user.

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