BTC Realized Price Bands

BTC Realized Price Bands
Dynamic support and resistance bands built from Bitcoin's on-chain Realized Price — the aggregate cost basis of all BTC holders.

What is Realized Price?
Realized Price is calculated by dividing the Realized Market Cap by the circulating supply. Unlike regular market cap which values every coin at the current spot price, Realized Cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain. The result is a fair-value anchor that represents what the average holder actually paid for their BTC.

How the bands work

The indicator plots the Realized Price and multiplies it by configurable bands above and below:

Sub-Band (0.75x) — Extreme undervaluation. Price dropping here has historically been generational buy territory.
Realized Price (1.0x) — The aggregate cost basis. Price below this means the market is in net unrealized loss — a rare and significant event.
Band 1 (1.5x) — Early bull territory. Price holding above this zone typically signals a healthy uptrend.
Band 2 (2.0x) — Mid-cycle. Market is running at 2x the average cost basis — momentum is strong but not yet euphoric.
Band 3 (3.0x) — Late cycle / overheated. Historically where cycle tops begin forming.
Band 4 (3.5x) — Extreme overvaluation. Deep into euphoria — proceed with caution.

All multipliers are fully adjustable in settings.

Visual cues
Color-filled zones between each band create a heat map — cool blues and greens near the bottom, warming through yellow and orange, into red at the top. Bar coloring reflects which zone price is currently in:

🟣 Purple — Below sub-band (extreme undervaluation)
🔵 Blue — Below realized price (market in loss)
🟢 Green — Between realized price and Band 1
🟡 Yellow — Between Band 1 and Band 2
🟠 Orange — Between Band 2 and Band 3
🔴 Red — Above Band 3 (overheated)

Data sources
Uses on-chain data available directly on TradingView:

BTC_MARKETCAPREAL — Realized Market Cap
BTC_SUPPLY — Circulating Supply

How to use it
Apply to any BTC chart as an overlay. The bands act as dynamic, fundamentally-grounded support/resistance levels that evolve with the market. Unlike fixed price levels, these bands shift as the aggregate cost basis of holders changes over time — giving you context that pure price action can't.

リリースノート

# Update Description

BTC Realized Price Bands

This indicator overlays Bitcoin’s Realized Price and a configurable set of multiplier bands derived directly from on-chain valuation data.

Rather than using moving averages or volatility-based envelopes, the bands are anchored to Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis and expand proportionally from that structural valuation level.

Conceptual Background
What Is Realized Price?

Realized Price is calculated as:

Realized Market Cap / Circulating Supply

In this script:
Realized Market Cap is requested using BTC_MARKETCAPREAL
Circulating Supply is requested using BTC_SUPPLY
Both are retrieved via request.security() on the chart timeframe
Realized Price = btc_realized / btc_supply

Realized Market Cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, which makes Realized Price a proxy for the average acquisition price of all BTC holders.

When market price trades:

Above Realized Price → the aggregate market is in net unrealized profit
Below Realized Price → the aggregate market is in net unrealized loss

Band Construction

The indicator multiplies Realized Price by configurable factors:

Sub-Band (default 0.75x)
Band 1 (1.5x)
Band 2 (2.0x)
Band 3 (3.0x)
Band 4 (3.5x)

Each band is calculated as:

Band = Realized Price × Multiplier

Because the base value (Realized Price) changes over time with on-chain data, all bands dynamically adapt to shifts in Bitcoin’s cost basis.

This creates a valuation framework where distance from Realized Price reflects proportional expansion from aggregate holder cost.

All multipliers are fully adjustable.

What Makes This Different

This is not a volatility envelope or a moving average channel.

The bands:

Are not based on standard deviation of price
Are not derived from historical price oscillation
Are anchored to on-chain cost basis data
Scale proportionally with structural valuation

This allows traders to observe how far price deviates from aggregate holder cost rather than from recent price behavior.

Visual Structure

Realized Price is plotted as the central anchor line.
Multiplier bands are plotted above and below.
Optional zone fills create a gradient heat map for quick regime identification.
Optional bar coloring reflects the current band zone.

Bar color logic is based on where BTC daily price (INDEX:BTCUSD) is relative to the bands.

How to Use

This tool is best used as a macro valuation framework.

Common ways traders use Realized Price context:

Identify when price approaches or moves below aggregate cost basis.
Measure proportional expansion above cost basis during bullish phases.
Compare current valuation expansion to prior market cycles.
Because the bands are proportional rather than statistical, they provide structural valuation context rather than short-term timing signals.

Important Notes & Limitations

This indicator does not predict market tops or bottoms.
Price can remain extended above upper bands for prolonged periods.
Realized Price updates depend on on-chain data feeds available on TradingView.
This tool is designed for higher timeframe structural analysis, not short-term intraday trading signals.
Multipliers are heuristic expansion levels and not statistically optimized thresholds.

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AriSaiQuant

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AriSaiQuant

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