OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Ribbon Concordance [RC Tools]
RC Tools — Ribbon Concordance
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█ OVERVIEW
Most ribbon-of-moving-averages tools either average the ribbon or rely on simple crossovers. This one asks a different question: is the ribbon consistently ORDERED? A cleanly stacked ribbon signals real trend conviction; a tangled, crossing one signals chop — often before any single moving average has crossed another.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Plots a live moving-average ribbon directly on the price chart (choice of 7 MA types, up to 10 MAs), plus a rank-concordance score (-100 to +100) in its own pane. Classifies the ribbon into four bands — Strong Bullish, Weak Bullish, Weak Bearish, Strong Bearish — colours the chart background accordingly, and shows a table with the current band, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each band.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
Ribbon tools usually throw away information about HOW consistently the ribbon is stacked, collapsing it to an average or a single crossover event. This tool instead measures rank concordance — a public, long-established statistical concept (related to Kendall's tau) that quantifies how well two orderings agree with each other. Applied to a moving-average ribbon: compare every pair of MAs, shorter-period against longer-period, and score whether their relative ordering is consistent with a clean trend. A ribbon where every shorter MA sits above every longer one (or below, for a downtrend) scores near the extreme; a tangled, crossing ribbon averages out near zero. This is a different statistical question than "is price above its moving average" or "how efficient was the recent price path" (see the Regime Classifier for that approach) — it is specifically about internal agreement across the whole ribbon at once.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Build a ribbon of N moving averages (configurable type and count), with periods increasing linearly from a base period by a fixed spacing.
2. For every pair of MAs (i, j) where i has a shorter period than j: score +1 if MA > MA[j] (bullish-consistent ordering), -1 if reversed, 0 if tied.
3. Sum all pair scores and normalise by the number of pairs compared, scaled to -100..+100.
4. Optionally EMA-smooth the raw score, which is otherwise a somewhat steppy pairwise count, for a cleaner read.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the band never flips mid-bar and reverses. The MA ribbon itself plots live, exactly like any moving average on any chart; that is normal behaviour, not repainting. Only the concordance score and its band classification are held to confirmed bars.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source, MA Type (SMA / EMA / WMA / RMA / HMA / DEMA / TEMA)
• Base Period and Period Spacing — set the shortest MA and the gap between each successive one
• Ribbon Size (3-10 MAs) — more MAs smooth the read but add lag from the longest one; fewer react faster but are noisier
• Score Smoothing Length — EMA smoothing on the raw concordance score (set to 1 for none)
• Strong Threshold — the score above which (or below its negative) a band counts as "Strong" rather than "Weak"
• Forward Return Window — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Show MA Ribbon on Chart — toggle the ribbon overlay off if you only want the concordance pane
• Ribbon gradient colours (short end / long end) and band colours are fully configurable
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a trend-conviction filter alongside your existing process. Strong Bullish/Bearish bands indicate a cleanly stacked ribbon — a higher-conviction environment for trend-following approaches. Weak bands, or frequent flips between Weak Bullish and Weak Bearish, indicate the ribbon is loosely ordered — more caution warranted for trend-following, and potentially a more favourable environment for mean-reversion approaches instead. Check the base-rate table's sample count before assuming any one band is systematically favourable.
Works on any asset and timeframe; ribbon size and spacing should be tuned to the timeframe you trade (a wide, long-spaced ribbon on a low timeframe will lag heavily).
█ LIMITATIONS
• This is a ribbon of moving averages — inherently lagging by construction. It confirms alignment after price has already moved, and this cannot be removed without curve-fitting.
• Near-zero or Weak readings are common in choppy, range-bound conditions and do NOT predict a breakout direction — they only describe the ribbon's current state of (dis)agreement.
• Ribbon size is a real trade-off: more MAs smooth the read but add lag from the longest included MA; fewer MAs react faster but are noisier.
• The concordance score and band update on confirmed bar close only. The ribbon MA lines themselves plot live, like any moving average — that is normal behaviour, not repainting.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially for less common bands.
• Four bands are a deliberate simplification of a continuous reality. Markets do not actually occupy discrete states.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any band does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
█ OVERVIEW
Most ribbon-of-moving-averages tools either average the ribbon or rely on simple crossovers. This one asks a different question: is the ribbon consistently ORDERED? A cleanly stacked ribbon signals real trend conviction; a tangled, crossing one signals chop — often before any single moving average has crossed another.
█ WHAT IT DOES
Plots a live moving-average ribbon directly on the price chart (choice of 7 MA types, up to 10 MAs), plus a rank-concordance score (-100 to +100) in its own pane. Classifies the ribbon into four bands — Strong Bullish, Weak Bullish, Weak Bearish, Strong Bearish — colours the chart background accordingly, and shows a table with the current band, how long price has been in it, and historical base rates (average forward return and win rate) for each band.
█ THE THEORY BEHIND IT
Ribbon tools usually throw away information about HOW consistently the ribbon is stacked, collapsing it to an average or a single crossover event. This tool instead measures rank concordance — a public, long-established statistical concept (related to Kendall's tau) that quantifies how well two orderings agree with each other. Applied to a moving-average ribbon: compare every pair of MAs, shorter-period against longer-period, and score whether their relative ordering is consistent with a clean trend. A ribbon where every shorter MA sits above every longer one (or below, for a downtrend) scores near the extreme; a tangled, crossing ribbon averages out near zero. This is a different statistical question than "is price above its moving average" or "how efficient was the recent price path" (see the Regime Classifier for that approach) — it is specifically about internal agreement across the whole ribbon at once.
█ HOW IT IS CALCULATED
1. Build a ribbon of N moving averages (configurable type and count), with periods increasing linearly from a base period by a fixed spacing.
2. For every pair of MAs (i, j) where i has a shorter period than j: score +1 if MA > MA[j] (bullish-consistent ordering), -1 if reversed, 0 if tied.
3. Sum all pair scores and normalise by the number of pairs compared, scaled to -100..+100.
4. Optionally EMA-smooth the raw score, which is otherwise a somewhat steppy pairwise count, for a cleaner read.
Classification occurs ONLY on confirmed bar close — the band never flips mid-bar and reverses. The MA ribbon itself plots live, exactly like any moving average on any chart; that is normal behaviour, not repainting. Only the concordance score and its band classification are held to confirmed bars.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
• Source, MA Type (SMA / EMA / WMA / RMA / HMA / DEMA / TEMA)
• Base Period and Period Spacing — set the shortest MA and the gap between each successive one
• Ribbon Size (3-10 MAs) — more MAs smooth the read but add lag from the longest one; fewer react faster but are noisier
• Score Smoothing Length — EMA smoothing on the raw concordance score (set to 1 for none)
• Strong Threshold — the score above which (or below its negative) a band counts as "Strong" rather than "Weak"
• Forward Return Window — the horizon used for the base-rate table
• Show MA Ribbon on Chart — toggle the ribbon overlay off if you only want the concordance pane
• Ribbon gradient colours (short end / long end) and band colours are fully configurable
█ HOW TO USE IT
Use it as a trend-conviction filter alongside your existing process. Strong Bullish/Bearish bands indicate a cleanly stacked ribbon — a higher-conviction environment for trend-following approaches. Weak bands, or frequent flips between Weak Bullish and Weak Bearish, indicate the ribbon is loosely ordered — more caution warranted for trend-following, and potentially a more favourable environment for mean-reversion approaches instead. Check the base-rate table's sample count before assuming any one band is systematically favourable.
Works on any asset and timeframe; ribbon size and spacing should be tuned to the timeframe you trade (a wide, long-spaced ribbon on a low timeframe will lag heavily).
█ LIMITATIONS
• This is a ribbon of moving averages — inherently lagging by construction. It confirms alignment after price has already moved, and this cannot be removed without curve-fitting.
• Near-zero or Weak readings are common in choppy, range-bound conditions and do NOT predict a breakout direction — they only describe the ribbon's current state of (dis)agreement.
• Ribbon size is a real trade-off: more MAs smooth the read but add lag from the longest included MA; fewer MAs react faster but are noisier.
• The concordance score and band update on confirmed bar close only. The ribbon MA lines themselves plot live, like any moving average — that is normal behaviour, not repainting.
• Historical base-rate stats need a meaningful sample count (check N) before being trusted, especially for less common bands.
• Four bands are a deliberate simplification of a continuous reality. Markets do not actually occupy discrete states.
█ DISCLAIMER
For educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Past behaviour of any band does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
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オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。