OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
更新済 88Targets - CVDD Pro
CVDD Pro — Bitcoin's Historical Floor and Cycle Top, On One Chart
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Every Bitcoin cycle, coins move from experienced long-term holders to new buyers. CVDD tracks the cumulative price at which that handover happened — and historically, Bitcoin's biggest bottoms formed right at that level. This indicator draws that floor, an accumulation zone above it, and a cycle-top estimate — all from real on-chain data.
WHAT YOU SEE
• Gold line — the raw CVDD floor, computed from on-chain data (Realized Cap minus cumulative transfer volume). Bitcoin's major bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) formed at or near this line.
• Blue line — the practical bottom line, set slightly above the raw floor (Bitcoin historically bottoms a little above it, not exactly on it).
• Green shaded zone — the accumulation zone. Price entering here has historically meant late-stage capitulation territory.
• Red line — the cycle top estimate. Bitcoin's blow-off tops have been shrinking every cycle as the market matures; this line models that decay and compresses over time.
• Background highlights — soft green when price tags the bottom line, soft red when it tags the top line.
SIGNALS & ALERTS (3 built in)
• Zone entry (▽ marker + alert) — price entered the accumulation zone. A heads-up, not a buy signal.
• Zone exit upward (▲ marker + alert) — price climbed back OUT of the zone. Historically this confirmation marked the end of capitulation, near the start of new cycle legs.
• Top band touch (alert) — price reached the cycle top estimate, historically distribution territory.
HOW THE TOP MODEL WORKS (original)
Bitcoin's cycle tops used to overshoot the floor by huge multiples in its early years, and that overshoot has shrunk every cycle. The top line models this with a simple decaying multiple: it starts high in the early era and compresses toward a minimum as the market matures. The three settings controlling it are pre-fitted to the 2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025 tops and explained in plain language in their tooltips.
DATA & REQUIREMENTS
• Uses TradingView's integrated on-chain feeds: COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL and GLASSNODE:BTC_TOTALVOLUME
• Bitcoin only — the script warns you if loaded on a non-BTC chart
• Best on Daily or Weekly with full history (e.g. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)
SETTINGS
Every setting is written in plain language with a tooltip. The defaults are calibrated — most users never need to change anything. The Colors group lets you restyle every element.
HONEST LIMITATIONS — PLEASE READ
• Bitcoin has had only a handful of true cycle bottoms and tops in its entire history. That is a very small sample — these levels are historical references, not guarantees.
• The top model is fitted to past cycles. Market structure changes (ETFs, institutional holders) may change how future cycles behave in ways no historical model can anticipate.
• Nothing here predicts the future. This is a decision-support tool for cycle context — not financial advice and not a complete trading system. Always apply your own risk management.
CREDITS & ORIGINALITY
The CVDD concept was created by Willy Woo and is publicly documented. This script is an original, from-scratch implementation of that public concept using TradingView's on-chain data feeds, extended with an original cycle-top decay model, accumulation zone system, confirmation signals, and dashboard — none of which reuse code from other scripts.
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Every Bitcoin cycle, coins move from experienced long-term holders to new buyers. CVDD tracks the cumulative price at which that handover happened — and historically, Bitcoin's biggest bottoms formed right at that level. This indicator draws that floor, an accumulation zone above it, and a cycle-top estimate — all from real on-chain data.
WHAT YOU SEE
• Gold line — the raw CVDD floor, computed from on-chain data (Realized Cap minus cumulative transfer volume). Bitcoin's major bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) formed at or near this line.
• Blue line — the practical bottom line, set slightly above the raw floor (Bitcoin historically bottoms a little above it, not exactly on it).
• Green shaded zone — the accumulation zone. Price entering here has historically meant late-stage capitulation territory.
• Red line — the cycle top estimate. Bitcoin's blow-off tops have been shrinking every cycle as the market matures; this line models that decay and compresses over time.
• Background highlights — soft green when price tags the bottom line, soft red when it tags the top line.
SIGNALS & ALERTS (3 built in)
• Zone entry (▽ marker + alert) — price entered the accumulation zone. A heads-up, not a buy signal.
• Zone exit upward (▲ marker + alert) — price climbed back OUT of the zone. Historically this confirmation marked the end of capitulation, near the start of new cycle legs.
• Top band touch (alert) — price reached the cycle top estimate, historically distribution territory.
HOW THE TOP MODEL WORKS (original)
Bitcoin's cycle tops used to overshoot the floor by huge multiples in its early years, and that overshoot has shrunk every cycle. The top line models this with a simple decaying multiple: it starts high in the early era and compresses toward a minimum as the market matures. The three settings controlling it are pre-fitted to the 2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025 tops and explained in plain language in their tooltips.
DATA & REQUIREMENTS
• Uses TradingView's integrated on-chain feeds: COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL and GLASSNODE:BTC_TOTALVOLUME
• Bitcoin only — the script warns you if loaded on a non-BTC chart
• Best on Daily or Weekly with full history (e.g. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)
SETTINGS
Every setting is written in plain language with a tooltip. The defaults are calibrated — most users never need to change anything. The Colors group lets you restyle every element.
HONEST LIMITATIONS — PLEASE READ
• Bitcoin has had only a handful of true cycle bottoms and tops in its entire history. That is a very small sample — these levels are historical references, not guarantees.
• The top model is fitted to past cycles. Market structure changes (ETFs, institutional holders) may change how future cycles behave in ways no historical model can anticipate.
• Nothing here predicts the future. This is a decision-support tool for cycle context — not financial advice and not a complete trading system. Always apply your own risk management.
CREDITS & ORIGINALITY
The CVDD concept was created by Willy Woo and is publicly documented. This script is an original, from-scratch implementation of that public concept using TradingView's on-chain data feeds, extended with an original cycle-top decay model, accumulation zone system, confirmation signals, and dashboard — none of which reuse code from other scripts.
リリースノート
88T CVDD Pro — Bitcoin's Historical Floor and Cycle Top, On One Chart═══════════════════════════════════════
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Every Bitcoin cycle, coins move from experienced long-term holders to new buyers. This indicator tracks the cumulative price at which that handover happened — historically, Bitcoin's biggest bottoms formed right there. On top of it, an original model estimates the cycle top based on how Bitcoin's blow-off tops have shrunk each cycle. All computed live from real on-chain data.
═══════════════════════════════════════
WHAT YOU SEE (10 seconds)
• Gold line — the raw floor, computed from Bitcoin's on-chain data. Every major bottom (2015, 2018, 2022) formed at or near this line.
• Blue line — the practical bottom, set slightly above the raw floor because that's where BTC actually tends to bottom.
• Green zone — the accumulation zone. Historically, price entering here has meant late-stage capitulation.
• Red line — the cycle top estimate. Bitcoin's blow-off tops shrink every cycle as the market matures; this line models that decay.
• Background flashes — soft green when price tags the bottom, soft red when it touches the top line.
═══════════════════════════════════════
THE THREE ALERTS
1 — Buy Zone Entry 🟢
Price entered the accumulation zone. Heads-up, not a buy signal.
2 — Buy Zone Exit Upward ✅
Price climbed BACK OUT of the zone. Historically, this move has marked the end of every major capitulation. Higher-conviction signal.
3 — Cycle Top Line Touch 🔴
Price reached the top estimate. Historically, distribution territory.
Each alert is fully formatted and Discord / Telegram / mobile-push ready out of the box. No customization needed.
═══════════════════════════════════════
WHY THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM OTHER CVDD SCRIPTS
Most existing CVDD tools show just the floor. This one adds:
• An original cycle-top decay model — fitted to the 2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025 tops with three plain-language settings
• A configurable accumulation zone above the floor (not just a single line)
• Structured, formatted alerts you can plug directly into automation
• A confirmation signal for the exit, not just the entry
• Every setting written in beginner-friendly language, with tooltips explaining when to change it and when to leave it alone
• Full color customization — restyle the entire look without touching code
═══════════════════════════════════════
DATA & REQUIREMENTS
• Uses TradingView's on-chain feeds — COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL and GLASSNODE:BTC_TOTALVOLUME
• Bitcoin only — the script warns you if loaded on the wrong symbol
• Best on Daily or Weekly (BITSTAMP:BTCUSD recommended for full history)
═══════════════════════════════════════
SETTINGS — YOU SHOULDN'T NEED TO TOUCH ANYTHING
Every setting is calibrated with defaults that work out of the box. Two of them (Floor Height Adjuster and How Fast Tops Shrink) are pre-fitted to Bitcoin's actual history — the tooltips explicitly tell you when to leave them alone. If you do want to tune anything, every setting has a plain-language tooltip explaining direction and effect.
═══════════════════════════════════════
HONEST LIMITATIONS — PLEASE READ
Bitcoin has had only a handful of true cycle bottoms and tops in its entire history — that is a very small sample. These levels are historical references, not guarantees. The top model is fitted to past cycles; market structure changes (ETFs, institutional flows) may cause future cycles to behave differently in ways no historical model can anticipate.
Nothing here predicts the future. This is a decision-support tool for cycle context — not financial advice, not a complete trading system. Always apply your own risk management.
═══════════════════════════════════════
The CVDD concept was created by Willy Woo and is publicly documented. This is an original, from-scratch implementation using TradingView's on-chain data feeds, extended with an original cycle-top decay model, accumulation zone system, confirmation signals, formatted alert templates, and dashboard — none of which reuse code from other scripts.
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。