This chart for Alibaba (BABA) showcases a massive multi-year accumulation pattern, specifically a "Rounding Bottom" or "Cup" formation that began in late 2022. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the stock appears to have completed a primary Wave 3 impulse peak near the $190 level in late 2025 and is currently in the late stages of a Wave 4 corrective pullback.
The long-term outlook for BABA remains highly bullish as it successfully transitions from a multi-year basing phase into a structural uptrend. The recent pullback from the October 2025 highs represents a textbook Wave 4 correction, which has found precision support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($143.58). This level aligns perfectly with the breakout point of the major rounding base, transforming old resistance into new support.
Key Technical Levels:
* Support Zone: The $143 - $150 area is critical; as long as the pivot at point 4 holds, the impulsive structure remains intact.
* Wave 5 Target 1: A 1.0 Fibonacci extension projects an initial target of $205.42, which would reclaim the 52-week highs.
* Wave 5 Target 2: The primary 1.618 extension sits at $242.59, aligning with major historical supply zones from early 2021.
* Invalidation: A sustained daily close below the Wave 2 low (approx. $70-$80) would invalidate this specific count, though the $143 level is the immediate "line in the sand" for bulls.
Projected Outlook:
The current price action at $150.96 is forming what looks like a bullish consolidation (handle) following the massive cup breakout. With cloud and AI demand accelerating revenue growth into 2026, the fundamental narrative supports a re-rating toward the $200+ consensus analyst targets. Traders should watch for a breakout above the Wave 3 peak to confirm the start of the final fifth-wave leg higher.
The long-term outlook for BABA remains highly bullish as it successfully transitions from a multi-year basing phase into a structural uptrend. The recent pullback from the October 2025 highs represents a textbook Wave 4 correction, which has found precision support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($143.58). This level aligns perfectly with the breakout point of the major rounding base, transforming old resistance into new support.
Key Technical Levels:
* Support Zone: The $143 - $150 area is critical; as long as the pivot at point 4 holds, the impulsive structure remains intact.
* Wave 5 Target 1: A 1.0 Fibonacci extension projects an initial target of $205.42, which would reclaim the 52-week highs.
* Wave 5 Target 2: The primary 1.618 extension sits at $242.59, aligning with major historical supply zones from early 2021.
* Invalidation: A sustained daily close below the Wave 2 low (approx. $70-$80) would invalidate this specific count, though the $143 level is the immediate "line in the sand" for bulls.
Projected Outlook:
The current price action at $150.96 is forming what looks like a bullish consolidation (handle) following the massive cup breakout. With cloud and AI demand accelerating revenue growth into 2026, the fundamental narrative supports a re-rating toward the $200+ consensus analyst targets. Traders should watch for a breakout above the Wave 3 peak to confirm the start of the final fifth-wave leg higher.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.