We are in a bear market.
In bear markets you spend more time trending up longer than trending down.
Based on YTD, we trend up ~21-22% over 55 days until a lower high is formed.
What follows, is a cliff dive… tumbling down ~39% in just 3 weeks.
Although we aren’t quite at 55 days, speculation on the looming escalation in the Iran war could lead to the lower high forming earlier, in this case it’s already in as of 3/17.
Using a bar chart to match up the most recent leg down using the same timeframe and depreciation…
we may see $45-50k in the next 2 weeks
That’s a kick to the teeth for perma bulls, while bears get their 15 seconds of fame.
Narrative follows price, regardless of the setting. Last midterm year we formed a local high around this time of year, and we had Russia-Ukraine war.
This period of time is meant for capital preservation so don’t try and time these swings, or at least don’t bet big.
Otherwise, focus on the macro trend. We WILL go another leg lower. Just don’t get caught being overexposed and illiquid.
In bear markets you spend more time trending up longer than trending down.
Based on YTD, we trend up ~21-22% over 55 days until a lower high is formed.
What follows, is a cliff dive… tumbling down ~39% in just 3 weeks.
Although we aren’t quite at 55 days, speculation on the looming escalation in the Iran war could lead to the lower high forming earlier, in this case it’s already in as of 3/17.
Using a bar chart to match up the most recent leg down using the same timeframe and depreciation…
we may see $45-50k in the next 2 weeks
That’s a kick to the teeth for perma bulls, while bears get their 15 seconds of fame.
Narrative follows price, regardless of the setting. Last midterm year we formed a local high around this time of year, and we had Russia-Ukraine war.
This period of time is meant for capital preservation so don’t try and time these swings, or at least don’t bet big.
Otherwise, focus on the macro trend. We WILL go another leg lower. Just don’t get caught being overexposed and illiquid.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.