Traders,
What a week it’s been. A lot of people got rekt, and I hope you were on the right side of the move. If not, it’s fine: this is how markets reset. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about what comes next, so here’s my current view.
The Situation
Why It Matters
How the Flush Works in Spot Markets
What Arbitrage Does
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now: a temporary dislocation that arbitrage will eventually close.
What I Expect
This isn’t a guaranteed move, but it’s a logical rebalancing target supported by historical arbitrage behavior.
What Could Happen Before That
What I’m Watching
My Plan (Not Financial Advice)
Only if those metrics confirm strength will I consider entering.If not, I’ll stay flat and wait for the next confirmation.
So, TLDR;
Both Binance and Coinbase printed clean, round-number lows that are likely to be swept again. Arbitrage will eventually bring the spot markets back into balance, which should pull Coinbase closer to Binance’s 102k low. We might even see a push toward 120k first as liquidity resets. Either way, patience is key: let arbitrage, liquidity, and order flow do their job before taking any position.
And remember: Patience in trading isn’t about doing nothing, it’s about waiting for the odds to align in your favor. Chasing every move might feed the ego, but patience compounds the account. The market always rewards the trader who can sit still when everyone else is reacting.
Trade safe!
What a week it’s been. A lot of people got rekt, and I hope you were on the right side of the move. If not, it’s fine: this is how markets reset. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about what comes next, so here’s my current view.
The Situation
- Binance/USDT wicked down to 102,000
- Binance/USD wicked to 107,485.59
- Coinbase/USD wicked to 107,000
- That’s roughly a $5,000 difference, or about 5%, which is huge for major spot markets.
- Under normal conditions, spreads between top venues like Coinbase and Binance are usually below 1% (Bitwise, 2019 SEC Study on Real Bitcoin Trading Volume - for the nerds interested ;)).
Why It Matters
- Both Binance and Coinbase printed round-number lows (102k and 107k).
- Round-number lows are considered “bad lows” because they attract clustered stop-loss orders and create obvious liquidity pools underneath.
- Studies on market microstructure (e.g., Osler 2003; Kamps & Klein 2018) confirm that price clustering at round numbers is a real behavioral bias in FX and crypto markets.
- Real market bottoms are messy, chaotic, and rarely form at clean, even levels.
- These “perfect” lows often get revisited or swept later as the market clears liquidity and finds true balance.
How the Flush Works in Spot Markets
- Even though spot markets don’t have leverage liquidations, they still experience stop cascades and panic selling.
- When price breaks below a clean low, it triggers stops, sending a surge of sell orders into thin liquidity.
- Market makers step in to absorb those orders and rebuild liquidity from a more stable base.
- This is what traders call a spot flush — the market removing weak hands and resetting liquidity.
- Conceptually, it’s the same as a liquidation flush in futures, just without forced margin calls.
What Arbitrage Does
- Arbitrage keeps prices between exchanges in check.
- When Bitcoin trades cheaper on Binance than on Coinbase, arbitrage traders buy on Binance and sell on Coinbase.
- This pushes the cheap venue’s price up and the expensive one down until they align.
- Makarov & Schoar (2020, NBER) showed that cross-exchange price deviations in Bitcoin are temporary and mean-reverting, driven by arbitrage capital restoring equilibrium.
- Kaiko research (2021–2023) also found that USD and USDT pairs often decouple during stress events, especially when stablecoin liquidity or banking rails get disrupted, and later realign once volatility settles.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now: a temporary dislocation that arbitrage will eventually close.
What I Expect
- Binance already swept liquidity down to 102k.
- Coinbase still has a clean 107k low that hasn’t been tested.
- To rebalance both exchanges, I expect Coinbase to trade within 1% of the Binance 102k low, meaning roughly 103k–104k.
- That would bring both markets back into alignment and complete a proper spot flush.
This isn’t a guaranteed move, but it’s a logical rebalancing target supported by historical arbitrage behavior.
What Could Happen Before That
- We could still see Bitcoin move back toward 118k–120k before a potential drop.
- After major liquidation events, markets often retrace sharply as liquidity rebuilds and shorts get squeezed.
- A move higher doesn’t invalidate the idea of a later sweep; it could just be part of the natural reset phase before the market finds true equilibrium.
What I’m Watching
- The spread between Coinbase/USD and Binance/USDT narrowing from around 5% to about 1%.
- Coinbase breaking below 107k and testing the 104–102k zone.
- A liquidity sweep followed by a strong reclaim and visible buy volume.
- If we move up first, I’ll watch price behavior around 118k–120k for signs of exhaustion.
My Plan (Not Financial Advice)
- I’m staying patient and letting the market mechanics reset.
- If Coinbase trades into the 103k–102k zone, that’s my “let’s see what’s going on now” trigger.
- That doesn’t mean I’ll instantly go long — it means I’ll start watching the data:
- Volume and delta (are buyers stepping in?)
- Strength of reclaim (is the recovery fast and decisive?)
- Order book depth (is liquidity returning?)
- What is Open Interest doing?
- Do we see absorption? Or maybe a continuation pattern even?
Only if those metrics confirm strength will I consider entering.If not, I’ll stay flat and wait for the next confirmation.
So, TLDR;
Both Binance and Coinbase printed clean, round-number lows that are likely to be swept again. Arbitrage will eventually bring the spot markets back into balance, which should pull Coinbase closer to Binance’s 102k low. We might even see a push toward 120k first as liquidity resets. Either way, patience is key: let arbitrage, liquidity, and order flow do their job before taking any position.
And remember: Patience in trading isn’t about doing nothing, it’s about waiting for the odds to align in your favor. Chasing every move might feed the ego, but patience compounds the account. The market always rewards the trader who can sit still when everyone else is reacting.
Trade safe!
노트
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I wouldn't be surprised if BTC sweeps the Sunday lows and then moves back to last weeks POC (Point of Control), before it dumps down again. Might look for a short between 122-124k. 노트
;)
노트
We see a huge amount of shorts building, however price is not yet pushing down. The CVD is making lower lows, whilst price is kind of staying in structure. This is hidden bullish divergence, where aggressive sellers try to push the price down, but passive buyers (limit orders) are keeping price up. When shorts get exhausted, we get the short squeeze towards the 122-124k levels. 노트
I’m planning to enter a long position around 109.350. There’s a CME gap that hasn’t been fully filled yet, which corresponds to roughly 109.350 on Binance. This level would also sweep the weekend lows on Binance.So the plan is to look for a long entry around 109.350, ride it up to around 122.750, and then look for short opportunities to create a spot market equilibrium after the move.
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면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.