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Core Bearish Drivers

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Core Bearish Drivers
(Dominant bearish factors driving the intraday pullback)
🌐1. Profit-taking on short-term rebounds; capital exits the market
After rebounding from a low of 59,100 to 65,500—a cumulative gain of over 10% across two waves—there is a significant volume of profitable short-term positions. ETF inflows were limited to a single day, lacking the momentum for sustained accumulation; institutions are primarily taking profits and reducing positions. Buying power lacks stamina, and the absence of fresh capital to take over after price spikes makes the asset highly susceptible to a pullback.

🔷2. Short-term rebound in the US Dollar and Treasury yields weighs on crypto valuations
US retail and industrial data exceeded expectations, prompting the market to re-price Federal Reserve tightening expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up and the US Dollar Index recovered, raising the holding cost of non-yielding digital assets. Capital has shifted slightly from the crypto market into fixed-income products, directly capping BTC's upside potential.

💎3. Heavy overhead resistance from trapped long positions; key resistance levels repeatedly tested but unbroken
The 64,400–64,700 range aligns with the 50-day moving average and the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone, while 65,300–65,500 marks the recent rebound high. Repeated upward attempts have been beaten back by bearish selling pressure, making a breakout on low volume highly unlikely. A pullback followed a bearish divergence on the hourly chart, indicating that short-term bearish forces currently dominate the market.
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