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Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Estimating the Next Bottom using EMA's

In this post, we take a straightforward approach to estimating the potential cycle bottom for Bitcoin using the 100, 200, and 400 weekly moving averages. There is no need to always overcomplicate the analysis when simple historical patterns can also provide valuable insights.

Historical Observations
Looking at previous cycles, several consistent patterns emerge:

The 100, 200, and 400-week moving averages have historically acted as key levels of support and resistance.
In the past two cycles, the cycle bottom occurred approximately 52 weeks after the cycle top.
The magnitude of drawdowns each cycle has shown a trend of diminishing severity: 2017–2018 cycle approximately -84% and 2021–2022 cycle approximately -77%.

Current Market Context
Turning to the current cycle:

The maximum drawdown so far is only around -52%, which is notably shallower than previous cycles.
The 400-week EMA corresponds to roughly a -60% drawdown, still perfectly aligning with the concept of diminishing returns.

Outlook
Based on historical drawdown trends, the behavior of long-term moving averages, and the typical ~52-week bear market duration, we anticipate that the next cycle bottom may occur toward the end of September 2026. This level is expected to coincide with a retest of the 400-week moving average, with a projected price range around $50,000, and the potential for temporary downside extensions toward $45,000.

Good luck, and trade safely! 🙏

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