Celsius Holdings is starting to look like one of the more interesting growth-reset setups in consumer/CPG.
The stock has pulled back from prior momentum levels, but the underlying business has changed dramatically. Celsius is no longer just a single-brand energy drink story. After acquiring Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy’s U.S./Canada business, the company now owns a broader energy portfolio across three consumer segments: CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar. The PepsiCo relationship also gives the portfolio significantly larger distribution reach in the U.S. and Canada.
Why I’m watching CELH
The core reason I’m bullish is simple: the financials are scaling faster than the stock is currently being rewarded for.
In Q1 2026, Celsius reported revenue of $782.6M, up 138% year over year. North America revenue reached $747.3M, up 144%, while international revenue reached $35.3M, up 55%. Alani Nu contributed $368.1M of revenue, Rockstar contributed $66.6M, and the core CELSIUS brand still grew approximately 6% year over year.
That is the key shift. This is no longer only a “Celsius can grow shelf space” story. It is becoming a scaled multi-brand energy platform.
Profitability
Gross profit increased to $378.1M, up from $172.4M in the prior-year period. Gross margin declined from 52.3% to 48.3%, which is the main bear argument, but management attributed the pressure largely to the integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar, both of which came in with lower margin profiles at acquisition. Management also noted that raw material COGS improved sequentially versus Q4 2025 and that margin initiatives such as freight optimization, raw material alignment, and price-pack architecture are still progressing.
Despite the gross margin pressure, earnings power improved materially. Diluted EPS was $0.33, compared to $0.15 last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.41, compared to $0.18 last year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $195.5M, and adjusted EBITDA margin was approximately 25%.
Valuation angle
At around $29.85/share and a market cap near $7.75B, CELH is not a deep-value stock, but the valuation starts looking more reasonable when compared to the new scale of the business. On annualized Q1 revenue of roughly $3.1B, the stock trades around 2.5x annualized sales. On annualized Q1 adjusted EPS of about $1.64, the stock trades around 18x annualized adjusted EPS.
That is why I think the market may be underestimating the reset. The headline trailing P/E looks expensive, but the company’s current earnings run-rate is improving much faster than the backward-looking multiple suggests.
Catalyst: upcoming earnings
The next earnings report is estimated for early August 2026, with several earnings calendars pointing around August 6, 2026, though the company has not officially confirmed the next date yet.
That creates a clean catalyst setup.
If the next quarter shows:
Continued revenue strength
Gross margin stabilization
Strong Alani Nu sell-through after the PepsiCo distribution transition
Rockstar integration progress
Strong adjusted EBITDA conversion
Positive commentary around international growth
then CELH could force a re-rating.
Bullish divergence setup
The potential bullish divergence is both technical and fundamental.
Fundamentally, the company is showing accelerating revenue, higher EPS, stronger adjusted EBITDA, and a larger multi-brand distribution platform. Technically, if the stock continues to base or retest support while momentum indicators like RSI or MACD begin forming higher lows, that would create a bullish divergence setup ahead of earnings.
That is the setup I’m watching:
Price has cooled off, but the business has not.
If earnings confirm that margins are stabilizing and the acquisitions are integrating cleanly, CELH could move from a “risky growth stock” narrative back toward a “scaled energy platform” narrative.
Key levels I’m watching
For me, the cleanest setup would be:
Bull case: CELH holds the high-$20s / low-$30s range and starts building higher lows into earnings.
Confirmation: Break above recent resistance with volume.
Catalyst: Strong Q2 earnings or margin stabilization commentary.
Invalidation: Loss of support with weak earnings, margin deterioration, or poor integration commentary.
Main risks
The bear case is not fake. CELH still has real risks.
Gross margin declined year over year. Acquisition integration adds complexity. Rockstar revenue was down at retail during Q1, even though it still added portfolio scale. Promotional spending, aluminum costs, freight costs, and execution risk could all pressure profitability.
The company is also now more dependent on executing within the PepsiCo system. That distribution advantage is powerful, but it also means execution and channel dynamics matter a lot. PepsiCo increased its ownership to approximately 11% and became more strategically aligned with Celsius through the expanded partnership, which is bullish long term, but it raises the importance of smooth integration.
Final thesis
CELH looks like a growth stock that has gone through a valuation reset while the business itself has become stronger and larger.
The market seems focused on margin pressure and integration risk. I think the more important question is whether Celsius is being undervalued as a single-brand growth stock while it is becoming a multi-brand energy platform with PepsiCo-backed distribution.
Into earnings, I’m watching for a possible bullish divergence:
weak/consolidating price action + improving fundamentals + earnings catalyst.
If Q2 confirms continued scale, margin stabilization, and clean integration, CELH could have room for a meaningful move higher.
Not financial advice — just my thesis and setup.
The stock has pulled back from prior momentum levels, but the underlying business has changed dramatically. Celsius is no longer just a single-brand energy drink story. After acquiring Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy’s U.S./Canada business, the company now owns a broader energy portfolio across three consumer segments: CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar. The PepsiCo relationship also gives the portfolio significantly larger distribution reach in the U.S. and Canada.
Why I’m watching CELH
The core reason I’m bullish is simple: the financials are scaling faster than the stock is currently being rewarded for.
In Q1 2026, Celsius reported revenue of $782.6M, up 138% year over year. North America revenue reached $747.3M, up 144%, while international revenue reached $35.3M, up 55%. Alani Nu contributed $368.1M of revenue, Rockstar contributed $66.6M, and the core CELSIUS brand still grew approximately 6% year over year.
That is the key shift. This is no longer only a “Celsius can grow shelf space” story. It is becoming a scaled multi-brand energy platform.
Profitability
Gross profit increased to $378.1M, up from $172.4M in the prior-year period. Gross margin declined from 52.3% to 48.3%, which is the main bear argument, but management attributed the pressure largely to the integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar, both of which came in with lower margin profiles at acquisition. Management also noted that raw material COGS improved sequentially versus Q4 2025 and that margin initiatives such as freight optimization, raw material alignment, and price-pack architecture are still progressing.
Despite the gross margin pressure, earnings power improved materially. Diluted EPS was $0.33, compared to $0.15 last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.41, compared to $0.18 last year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $195.5M, and adjusted EBITDA margin was approximately 25%.
Valuation angle
At around $29.85/share and a market cap near $7.75B, CELH is not a deep-value stock, but the valuation starts looking more reasonable when compared to the new scale of the business. On annualized Q1 revenue of roughly $3.1B, the stock trades around 2.5x annualized sales. On annualized Q1 adjusted EPS of about $1.64, the stock trades around 18x annualized adjusted EPS.
That is why I think the market may be underestimating the reset. The headline trailing P/E looks expensive, but the company’s current earnings run-rate is improving much faster than the backward-looking multiple suggests.
Catalyst: upcoming earnings
The next earnings report is estimated for early August 2026, with several earnings calendars pointing around August 6, 2026, though the company has not officially confirmed the next date yet.
That creates a clean catalyst setup.
If the next quarter shows:
Continued revenue strength
Gross margin stabilization
Strong Alani Nu sell-through after the PepsiCo distribution transition
Rockstar integration progress
Strong adjusted EBITDA conversion
Positive commentary around international growth
then CELH could force a re-rating.
Bullish divergence setup
The potential bullish divergence is both technical and fundamental.
Fundamentally, the company is showing accelerating revenue, higher EPS, stronger adjusted EBITDA, and a larger multi-brand distribution platform. Technically, if the stock continues to base or retest support while momentum indicators like RSI or MACD begin forming higher lows, that would create a bullish divergence setup ahead of earnings.
That is the setup I’m watching:
Price has cooled off, but the business has not.
If earnings confirm that margins are stabilizing and the acquisitions are integrating cleanly, CELH could move from a “risky growth stock” narrative back toward a “scaled energy platform” narrative.
Key levels I’m watching
For me, the cleanest setup would be:
Bull case: CELH holds the high-$20s / low-$30s range and starts building higher lows into earnings.
Confirmation: Break above recent resistance with volume.
Catalyst: Strong Q2 earnings or margin stabilization commentary.
Invalidation: Loss of support with weak earnings, margin deterioration, or poor integration commentary.
Main risks
The bear case is not fake. CELH still has real risks.
Gross margin declined year over year. Acquisition integration adds complexity. Rockstar revenue was down at retail during Q1, even though it still added portfolio scale. Promotional spending, aluminum costs, freight costs, and execution risk could all pressure profitability.
The company is also now more dependent on executing within the PepsiCo system. That distribution advantage is powerful, but it also means execution and channel dynamics matter a lot. PepsiCo increased its ownership to approximately 11% and became more strategically aligned with Celsius through the expanded partnership, which is bullish long term, but it raises the importance of smooth integration.
Final thesis
CELH looks like a growth stock that has gone through a valuation reset while the business itself has become stronger and larger.
The market seems focused on margin pressure and integration risk. I think the more important question is whether Celsius is being undervalued as a single-brand growth stock while it is becoming a multi-brand energy platform with PepsiCo-backed distribution.
Into earnings, I’m watching for a possible bullish divergence:
weak/consolidating price action + improving fundamentals + earnings catalyst.
If Q2 confirms continued scale, margin stabilization, and clean integration, CELH could have room for a meaningful move higher.
Not financial advice — just my thesis and setup.
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면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.