유로 / 일본 엔
Short

EURJPY — Textbook Trend Since 2020… Now Reversal Risk Is Rising

722
Since the 2020 local low near 114, EURJPY has been trading in a strong bullish trend. More importantly, from 2022 onward, the pair spent nearly two full years moving inside a clean, textbook ascending channel.

In the summer of 2024, after reaching the upper boundary of that channel, EURJPY corrected aggressively and, in less than a month, dropped into 155.

That level became a major support.

After printing that local low, the pair entered a 1,000-pip range, with a very strong floor around 155 acting as the base of demand.

By late February 2025, EURJPY returned to support again — and from that point, for almost a full year, price resumed the uptrend and eventually printed a new ATH last week at 187.10.

Then Friday hit.

A violent sell-off began, and the pair is now dropping toward the lower boundary of the recent rising channel.

🔎 Why EURJPY Is Now a Short Candidate

As mentioned in my latest JPY Index analysis, I’m expecting the JPY to finally enter a recovery phase — which makes JPY crosses strong candidates for correction.

EURJPY stands out immediately because it’s:

✅ heavily extended
✅ technically stretched
✅ and sitting at potential “end-of-trend” conditions

📌 Key Notes From the Bigger Picture

There are a few important things worth highlighting:

1️⃣ On the higher timeframes, ignoring intraday spikes, EURJPY has respected structure almost perfectly — like something taken from a technical analysis textbook.

2️⃣ I expect this technical behavior to continue going forward.

3️⃣ The first ascending channel had roughly a 1,500-pip width, which is normal for a healthy trend.

4️⃣ The more recent channel is much tighter — almost half the size.
And in my experience, this leads to reversal.

🎯 Outlook & Targets

As long as price remains below the recent ATH, I see the risk shifting toward a broader reversal.

On the bigger picture, the “normal” corrective target becomes:

➡️ 166 zone

At the same time, we must keep in mind the previous key area:

📌 175 zone (old ATH / major reference level)

Conclusion

Even without holding trades all the way to bigger targets, the key here is simple:

👉 a good short entry under ATH can offer excellent risk-to-reward

And even a controlled correction can realistically produce:

✅ 500+ pips
with the right entry and discipline.



면책사항

해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.