EUR/USD: Bullish Setup Above 1.1400

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EURUSD is holding the 1.1400 support area and the lower boundary of its rising channel. A breakout above 1.1460 could confirm the bullish scenario and open the way toward 1.1520, followed by the major 1.1615–1.1620 resistance.

The dollar is slightly weaker today, with DXY near 101.10, but U.S. yields remain elevated and continue to limit the euro’s recovery. Oil is also in focus ahead of the U.S. inventory report at 16:30, where markets expect a 2.000M-barrel draw versus 1.692M previously. A stronger draw could lift oil and inflation expectations, supporting the dollar.

Another volatility trigger comes at 21:00, when President Trump is scheduled to speak. Any comments concerning tariffs, geopolitical tensions or the economy could produce a sharp USD reaction. Meanwhile, markets are preparing for the ECB decision, with the deposit rate expected to remain at 2.25%.

Resistance: 1.1460, 1.1520, 1.1615–1.1620
Support: 1.1400, 1.1375, 1.1330

Holding above 1.1400 keeps up to 220 pips of upside in focus. However, today’s U.S. events could decide whether buyers get the breakout or lose the setup.

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