A Natural Gas Idea

I still don't think that NG bottoms until the end of December. Just basing it off the cycles analysis idea I have going...but NG is tricky. This is what I think may be going on right now on a short term cycle. If this count is correct, then the wave 1 is longer than the wave 3 which of course would mean that wave 5 must be smaller than 3. Soooo, I extended the fib measurement of wave 3 down (assuming we ended this little up move, and what do you know, it fits. Lets see. I do not have a position yet but if NG drops to that blue box then a nice short term long position will suffice.

노트

I thought that I would use the DGAZ chart to help show what I think is going to happen over the next few weeks with Nat Gas. Can you see what appears to be a very nice 4th wave in progress right now for DGAZ. So that tells me to expect more upside in NG until DGAZ gets down to about the $127 mark. Then I expect NG to drop for another couple months and fill a very large gap down near the 1.9 area. After that...expect one hell of a ride in UGAZ.

노트

I know that everyone was saying that the winter rally started back in August. I was not one of those people. I really don't think that we have bottomed yet. I saw the rally in August as a running flat and was correct. Now I think we have a smaller 5 waves down to at least fill the gap. Lets see what happens over the next few weeks.
For me the safest play is to just wait and see. If I am correct, then Ugaz will be an awesome play for a few months. You see, if you zoom way out you can see that we have been moving down in a decending wedge for many years. We should break out of that wedge at least by January.

노트

Short and sweet...I am looking for Natty to finally bottom on Monday. Somewhere around 1.5. Good luck

below is the cycle chart so you can understand why I am thinking Monday.

SalN

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SalN