Setup: QUBT gapped from ~10.17 on May 11 to a 14.45 intraday high on May 12 on the highest volume bar in months (33M+ shares), a clean catalyst-driven breakout through the prior consolidation range of 9-10.50 that had held for weeks. The 4h trend reversed decisively off the ~6.50 low in early April, printed a series of higher lows through May, and this gap extends that structure to new swing highs. The current candle is the most impulsive bar on the entire chart.
Flow: Options activity is heavily call-dominated across all strikes and expirations, with 14 bullish trades vs 7 bearish and net bullish premium of $181K vs $149K bearish. The BuyToOpen label on the May 22 $13C sweep (500 contracts, ask-side) is the cleanest directional signal — someone is paying for forward exposure above current levels, not closing. IV is extremely elevated (130-200%+ across strikes), reflecting the move size and post-catalyst repricing. Analyst mean target sits at $17.83 with a strong buy skew; insider selling is structural dilution noise common in high-growth quantum names.
Plan: Stop is set below the gap fill zone — if price closes the entire gap back to the ~12.40 area the breakout thesis is invalidated and the move was a fade. Target is the $16.50 area, just below the prior Dec/Jan swing high range visible on the 4h, where supply is likely to reappear. The 10y auction in ~190 minutes is the key risk — rate reprice could hit growth names hard; position sizing should reflect that event risk. The BuyToOpen sweep on the 13C for May 22 suggests smart money sees a path to continuation above current levels on a multi-day basis.
📍 Entry: 13.79
🛑 Stop: 12.40
🎯 Target: 16.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.95
Flow: Options activity is heavily call-dominated across all strikes and expirations, with 14 bullish trades vs 7 bearish and net bullish premium of $181K vs $149K bearish. The BuyToOpen label on the May 22 $13C sweep (500 contracts, ask-side) is the cleanest directional signal — someone is paying for forward exposure above current levels, not closing. IV is extremely elevated (130-200%+ across strikes), reflecting the move size and post-catalyst repricing. Analyst mean target sits at $17.83 with a strong buy skew; insider selling is structural dilution noise common in high-growth quantum names.
Plan: Stop is set below the gap fill zone — if price closes the entire gap back to the ~12.40 area the breakout thesis is invalidated and the move was a fade. Target is the $16.50 area, just below the prior Dec/Jan swing high range visible on the 4h, where supply is likely to reappear. The 10y auction in ~190 minutes is the key risk — rate reprice could hit growth names hard; position sizing should reflect that event risk. The BuyToOpen sweep on the 13C for May 22 suggests smart money sees a path to continuation above current levels on a multi-day basis.
📍 Entry: 13.79
🛑 Stop: 12.40
🎯 Target: 16.50
⚖️ R:R: 1.95
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.