Good morning,
I have traded this for the last 15 years, I am 14-1 on this trade, has a high probability of success. Time Frame is 8/2-8/19. The initial "crash and return to mean" is due to the seasonal demand consequence of the market. Low margin req, calender spreads would be a good option, I will let you figure out the set up as I can't give everything away. Entry can be tricky as, 80% of the trades in the last 15yrs have been initiated on 8/2, the other 20% on 8/3 to 8/4. After analyzing the trades the best equity option for this trade is usually realized between 8/8-8/11 (15yr average best entry range) as an entry and it varies however that is why you need to be monitoring this extremely boring trade. Exit will be on 8/16->8/18. Now the other issue is the open interest on the September contract, if you will be going that route on the front or back end, as it will exit quickly between this exit timeframe so do not hesitate to offset contracts a little early as 42,000 barrels of gasoline showing up at your house is not part of the plan. Be diligent on this trade as it has a high success rate however there are some hidden pitfalls in this trade.
"No sleep and I sound like a suit again, vague, gives hints, and is kinda dumb." -Kewlkat
I have traded this for the last 15 years, I am 14-1 on this trade, has a high probability of success. Time Frame is 8/2-8/19. The initial "crash and return to mean" is due to the seasonal demand consequence of the market. Low margin req, calender spreads would be a good option, I will let you figure out the set up as I can't give everything away. Entry can be tricky as, 80% of the trades in the last 15yrs have been initiated on 8/2, the other 20% on 8/3 to 8/4. After analyzing the trades the best equity option for this trade is usually realized between 8/8-8/11 (15yr average best entry range) as an entry and it varies however that is why you need to be monitoring this extremely boring trade. Exit will be on 8/16->8/18. Now the other issue is the open interest on the September contract, if you will be going that route on the front or back end, as it will exit quickly between this exit timeframe so do not hesitate to offset contracts a little early as 42,000 barrels of gasoline showing up at your house is not part of the plan. Be diligent on this trade as it has a high success rate however there are some hidden pitfalls in this trade.
"No sleep and I sound like a suit again, vague, gives hints, and is kinda dumb." -Kewlkat
거래청산: 타겟 닿음
We won again see you next month
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.