UPS has retraced approximately 65% from its 2022 highs, presenting a potential accumulation zone based on historical price structure and key retracement levels.
Technical Observations:
Price Structure:
Current price: $94.54
Trading near the 0.618 retracement level ($112.69) from the 2020 low to 2022 high
Approaching the 0.786 retracement zone ($79.84), which historically acted as strong support
Key Levels:
Monthly support zone: $78.60 area
Long-term trend line from 2008 lows remains intact
Price action showing signs of stabilization after extended decline
Risk Considerations:
Entry zone: Current levels to $79 area
Invalidation: Break below $70 would negate bullish thesis
Timeframe: Long-term position (12-24+ months)
Potential Upside Targets:
Based on historical swing analysis and fibonacci projections:
First resistance: $135-140 zone (0.5 retracement)
Second target: $158-165 zone (0.382 retracement)
Full recovery: $187-200+ zone (previous highs)
Fundamental Context:
UPS benefits from structural trends in e-commerce and logistics. Current valuation appears compressed relative to historical norms, though macroeconomic headwinds remain a factor.
Position Sizing:
Given the long-term nature and inherent volatility, this would be considered a tier 1 allocation in a diversified portfolio with appropriate risk management.
This is not financial advice. All investments carry risk. Past price action does not guarantee future results. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Technical Observations:
Price Structure:
Current price: $94.54
Trading near the 0.618 retracement level ($112.69) from the 2020 low to 2022 high
Approaching the 0.786 retracement zone ($79.84), which historically acted as strong support
Key Levels:
Monthly support zone: $78.60 area
Long-term trend line from 2008 lows remains intact
Price action showing signs of stabilization after extended decline
Risk Considerations:
Entry zone: Current levels to $79 area
Invalidation: Break below $70 would negate bullish thesis
Timeframe: Long-term position (12-24+ months)
Potential Upside Targets:
Based on historical swing analysis and fibonacci projections:
First resistance: $135-140 zone (0.5 retracement)
Second target: $158-165 zone (0.382 retracement)
Full recovery: $187-200+ zone (previous highs)
Fundamental Context:
UPS benefits from structural trends in e-commerce and logistics. Current valuation appears compressed relative to historical norms, though macroeconomic headwinds remain a factor.
Position Sizing:
Given the long-term nature and inherent volatility, this would be considered a tier 1 allocation in a diversified portfolio with appropriate risk management.
This is not financial advice. All investments carry risk. Past price action does not guarantee future results. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
⭐ Entry, stops & targets - tradedesk.rbtrading.site
⭐ Tools we use - start.rbtrading.site/
⭐ #1 Free Trading Journal | +20% Off Pro code RBT20 - rbtrading.site/?ref=RBT20
⭐ Tools we use - start.rbtrading.site/
⭐ #1 Free Trading Journal | +20% Off Pro code RBT20 - rbtrading.site/?ref=RBT20
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
⭐ Entry, stops & targets - tradedesk.rbtrading.site
⭐ Tools we use - start.rbtrading.site/
⭐ #1 Free Trading Journal | +20% Off Pro code RBT20 - rbtrading.site/?ref=RBT20
⭐ Tools we use - start.rbtrading.site/
⭐ #1 Free Trading Journal | +20% Off Pro code RBT20 - rbtrading.site/?ref=RBT20
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.