Thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent withUPS historical behavior
- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent with
UPS historical behavior- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.