Short

S&P500: Monthly overbought and prints a familiar Peak formation.

S&P500 turned again overbought on its 1M technical outlook (70.391, MACD = 522.010, ADX = 31.608) as April's rally not only recovered the loses of the previous 2 months but also added strong gains. Despite this, the 1M RSI remains under a LH structure similar to the 3 major peak formations since 2014. All of those when the crossed under the 1W MA50, they bottomed on the 1W MA200. 2018 and 2022 even retraced to their 0.382 Fib, while 2015 just over the 0.236 Fibonacci. Also all of them entered the 1M RSI Support Zone and bottomed.

Consequently, a strong correction is highly likely here, targeting a minimum of the 0.236 Fib (TP1 = 6200). There are more probabilities though of testing the 1W MA200 within a 6200-5600 range. The latter is where the 0.382 is currently located.

See how our prior idea has worked out:

S&P500: Once it breaks the 1W MA50, it doesn't look back.

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