US 500 (per 1.0)
Long

S&P500 oversold. Is it bound for a relief rally?

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Three days ago (see chart below) we gave a quick Sell Signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) as the price had already started its new Bearish Leg within the 1-month Channel Down:

S&P500 1-month Channel Down topped. Sell signal.


The 6470 Target got hit and now the price is once again at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down, with its 1D RSI oversold (under 30.00). That is a Buy Signal, translating to a potential short-term relief rally (Bullish Leg).

Assuming the Bearish Leg will do a -5.57% total decline (at least) based on the early March one, the Bullish Leg should test from that point, its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at least, which is where the previous two peaked.

As a result, this gives us a 6550 short-term Target.

Note though that the fact that the index lost its 1W MA50 (black trend-line) is far from ideal on the long-term and a breach below the Channel Down may invalidate the short-term relief rally bias, creating a new long-term bearish pattern to overcome this.

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