Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base).
Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision.
COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases.
Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal.
Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead.
🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation.
Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth).
A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision.
COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases.
Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal.
Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead.
🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation.
Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth).
A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
주문취소됨
Silver is ready for a new bullish momentum, waiting for a pullback before to evaluate a long entry.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.