Bearish Structure Holds, Sell Setups Remain Favoured Below OB Zones
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure after a sharp bearish displacement, with traders still monitoring the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. When the dollar stays supported and risk sentiment does not strongly favour safe-haven demand, gold can struggle to sustain recovery attempts.
For now, the chart does not show a confirmed bullish reversal. The current reaction looks more like a technical pullback after a strong downside move, and sellers may continue to defend the key supply zones if price fails to reclaim structure.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is showing a clear bearish market structure. Price has already broken previous support with strong displacement, creating a BOS to the downside and shifting momentum in favour of sellers.
The previous MSS area failed to create a sustainable bullish continuation. After that, price rejected from the upper structure and delivered a strong sell-off, breaking below the prior swing low and reaching the week low area around 4,312.
The current price is trading around 4,327, slightly above the week low. This means selling directly at the current low is less attractive. The cleaner setup is to wait for a pullback into a sell order zone before looking for bearish continuation.
The first sell order zone is located around 4,360 - 4,375. This is the nearest reaction area after the strong bearish displacement. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, sellers may target the week low again before extending lower.
The stronger OB sell zone is around 4,425 - 4,438. This zone previously acted as a breakdown area and may become a higher-probability supply zone if price retraces deeper. Above that, the next major bearish OB remains around 4,470 - 4,488.
From an SMC perspective, the market has already swept liquidity, created bearish displacement, and left clear supply zones above price. As long as gold remains below these OB zones, the main bias stays bearish.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,327
Week low liquidity: 4,312
Nearest sell order zone: 4,360 - 4,375
Main OB sell zone: 4,425 - 4,438
Higher OB resistance: 4,470 - 4,488
Major upper OB: 4,570 - 4,590
First downside target: 4,312
Beginning-of-week target zone: 4,252 - 4,240
Invalidation for nearest sell setup: above 4,385
Full bearish invalidation: above 4,488
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,360 - 4,375
Stop Loss: 4,385
Take Profit 1: 4,312
Take Profit 2: 4,252
Take Profit 3: 4,240
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for price to pull back into the 4,360 - 4,375 sell order zone. This area is the first reaction zone after the bearish displacement.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price shows clear rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation.
If price breaks below the week low at 4,312 with strong bearish momentum, the next downside objective is the beginning-of-week target zone around 4,252 - 4,240.
Alternative Sell Zone
If gold retraces deeper, the next important sell zone is around 4,425 - 4,438. This area is the main OB sell zone on the chart and may offer another bearish opportunity if price rejects from it.
Entry: 4,425 - 4,438
Stop Loss: 4,455
Take Profit 1: 4,375
Take Profit 2: 4,312
Take Profit 3: 4,252 - 4,240
Invalidation Scenario
This is not a main buy view. However, if gold reclaims 4,488 and holds above the higher OB zone, the bearish setup should be considered invalid. In that case, price may attempt a stronger recovery before a new structure forms.
Entry Conditions
Do not sell directly at the low without confirmation.
Wait for price to pull back into a clean sell zone.
The best sell condition is rejection from 4,360 - 4,375 or 4,425 - 4,438.
A break below 4,312 would confirm renewed bearish pressure.
If price closes above 4,488, the bearish structure should be reassessed.
Risk management is essential because gold can create sharp liquidity sweeps before continuing in the main direction.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the sell order zones and the previous broken structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a controlled pullback into resistance and look for sell confirmation toward 4,312, then 4,252 - 4,240.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a deeper pullback into the OB before taking action?
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure after a sharp bearish displacement, with traders still monitoring the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. When the dollar stays supported and risk sentiment does not strongly favour safe-haven demand, gold can struggle to sustain recovery attempts.
For now, the chart does not show a confirmed bullish reversal. The current reaction looks more like a technical pullback after a strong downside move, and sellers may continue to defend the key supply zones if price fails to reclaim structure.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is showing a clear bearish market structure. Price has already broken previous support with strong displacement, creating a BOS to the downside and shifting momentum in favour of sellers.
The previous MSS area failed to create a sustainable bullish continuation. After that, price rejected from the upper structure and delivered a strong sell-off, breaking below the prior swing low and reaching the week low area around 4,312.
The current price is trading around 4,327, slightly above the week low. This means selling directly at the current low is less attractive. The cleaner setup is to wait for a pullback into a sell order zone before looking for bearish continuation.
The first sell order zone is located around 4,360 - 4,375. This is the nearest reaction area after the strong bearish displacement. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, sellers may target the week low again before extending lower.
The stronger OB sell zone is around 4,425 - 4,438. This zone previously acted as a breakdown area and may become a higher-probability supply zone if price retraces deeper. Above that, the next major bearish OB remains around 4,470 - 4,488.
From an SMC perspective, the market has already swept liquidity, created bearish displacement, and left clear supply zones above price. As long as gold remains below these OB zones, the main bias stays bearish.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,327
Week low liquidity: 4,312
Nearest sell order zone: 4,360 - 4,375
Main OB sell zone: 4,425 - 4,438
Higher OB resistance: 4,470 - 4,488
Major upper OB: 4,570 - 4,590
First downside target: 4,312
Beginning-of-week target zone: 4,252 - 4,240
Invalidation for nearest sell setup: above 4,385
Full bearish invalidation: above 4,488
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,360 - 4,375
Stop Loss: 4,385
Take Profit 1: 4,312
Take Profit 2: 4,252
Take Profit 3: 4,240
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for price to pull back into the 4,360 - 4,375 sell order zone. This area is the first reaction zone after the bearish displacement.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price shows clear rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation.
If price breaks below the week low at 4,312 with strong bearish momentum, the next downside objective is the beginning-of-week target zone around 4,252 - 4,240.
Alternative Sell Zone
If gold retraces deeper, the next important sell zone is around 4,425 - 4,438. This area is the main OB sell zone on the chart and may offer another bearish opportunity if price rejects from it.
Entry: 4,425 - 4,438
Stop Loss: 4,455
Take Profit 1: 4,375
Take Profit 2: 4,312
Take Profit 3: 4,252 - 4,240
Invalidation Scenario
This is not a main buy view. However, if gold reclaims 4,488 and holds above the higher OB zone, the bearish setup should be considered invalid. In that case, price may attempt a stronger recovery before a new structure forms.
Entry Conditions
Do not sell directly at the low without confirmation.
Wait for price to pull back into a clean sell zone.
The best sell condition is rejection from 4,360 - 4,375 or 4,425 - 4,438.
A break below 4,312 would confirm renewed bearish pressure.
If price closes above 4,488, the bearish structure should be reassessed.
Risk management is essential because gold can create sharp liquidity sweeps before continuing in the main direction.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the sell order zones and the previous broken structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a controlled pullback into resistance and look for sell confirmation toward 4,312, then 4,252 - 4,240.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a deeper pullback into the OB before taking action?
Gold · SMC · 5+ years. t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
관련 발행물
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.
Gold · SMC · 5+ years. t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
Reading institutional footprints in XAUUSD — Order Blocks · FVG · Liquidity · Structure. Weekly outlook every Monday. Where smart money leads, we follow
t.me/+R38arB9C3aJhMWZl
관련 발행물
면책사항
해당 정보와 게시물은 금융, 투자, 트레이딩 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권장 사항으로 간주되지 않으며, 트레이딩뷰에서 제공하거나 보증하는 것이 아닙니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참조하세요.