Rally Within a Correction? Why Gold May Still Drop Below 4500

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1. What happened yesterday

Yesterday, Gold delivered a clean technical reaction.

Price reversed precisely from the 4700 confluence support zone and pushed back up toward 4800, confirming once again the importance of that level.

This move higher was not surprising:
- Strong support held
- Buyers stepped in
- Short-term trend remained intact

From a technical perspective, this was a textbook bounce.

2. The key question

Now the market faces a more important question:

Is this the continuation of the larger bullish trend… or just a temporary correction within a broader bearish structure?

3. Short-term view– Bullish structure intact

On the lower timeframes:
- The 4700 level is acting as solid support
- The market continues to print higher lows
- Momentum remains constructive on pullbacks

As long as:

4700 holds

We can reasonably expect:
- Another attempt at breaking above 4800
- Potential new short-term highs

So tactically:

The upside is still tradable in the short term.

4. Medium-term perspective – Corrective structure, not a trend reversal

However, zooming out changes the picture significantly.

The move from 4100 to current levels appears to be:
- A corrective phase, not a new impulsive bullish leg
- A reaction to the ~13,000 pip drop that started in early March

Structurally, we can observe:
- A clear impulsive move down
- Followed by a corrective recovery
- And now, early signs that highs are starting to bend

This “bending” behavior is important.

It often signals:
- Loss of bullish momentum
- Distribution rather than accumulation
- Preparation for a new leg lower

5. The key level for structure

Everything now revolves around one major level:

5000

As long as:

Price remains below 5000

The broader idea remains:
- This is not a bullish reversal
- But rather a corrective rally within a bearish context

6. Trading perspective

We are currently dealing with two different opportunities:

Short-term (tactical)
- Bullish bias above 4700
- Look for continuation toward or above 4800
- Momentum trades are still valid

Medium-term (strategic)
- Bias remains bearish
Focus shifts to:
- Selling rallies into resistance
- Waiting for exhaustion near key levels

Potential:

A 3,000 – 4,000 pip move to the downside

7. Conclusion

Short-term → Bullish structure intact, upside still tradable
Medium-term → Bearish outlook remains dominant below 5000

In simple terms:

The market is moving up… but likely not for long

Final thought

Strong markets don’t hesitate.

When you start seeing hesitation, overlapping, and bending highs…

It’s usually not accumulation — it’s preparation.
노트
The price remains elevated
We could see a new high, although, as I said, the big move will be down

스냅샷

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